W50 Rice Update: Global Rice Prices to Continue Uptrend Until 2025, Boosting Local Production is the Solution

Global Rice Prices Will Continue its Upward Trend Until 2025

The World Bank Global Commodity Outlook predicts global rice prices will continue to rise until 2025 due to export bans by major producing countries and the ongoing risks associated with the El Niño phenomenon. The report shows that global rice prices increased by 28% on average in 2023 compared to 2022, and there is an estimated additional 6% increase in 2024 due to high demand from Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia. India's export prohibition on regular-milled white rice also impacted the rice prices in Vietnam and Thailand.

In the United States (US), the price quote for US long-grain milled rice with 4% broken kernels is USD 760 per metric ton (mt), the highest since Oct-08 and has remained steady since Jan-23. The US price bids for Latin American markets remained stable at USD 725/mt since late Jan-23. The price of California medium-grain milled rice, Number 1 Grade (4% broken), remained at USD1,650/mt since late Dec-22, the highest on record. Despite lifting the ban on forex for 43 commodities, including rice, imports will not be cheaper due to global dynamics influenced by geopolitics, declining output, and high demand. Given the above changes, the most effective solution to address this problem is to boost production at the local level.

Vietnam Achieves Significant Milestone in Rice Exports in 2023

In the first eleven months of 2023, Vietnam accomplished a significant milestone in rice exports by shipping 7.71 million metric tons (mmt) of rice, valued at USD 4.41 billion. Due to superior quality, the export price for the 5% broken rate of the long thin variety of rice stood at a higher rate of USD 663/mt compared to Thai rice at USD 625/mt and Pakistan rice at USD 598/mt as of November 30. The quality of Vietnamese rice has significantly improved in recent years, and has been recognized as the most delicious rice in the world in a competition held in 2023. Furthermore, the Vietnamese government implemented a project with one million hectares (ha) of high-quality and low-emission rice varieties to maintain sustainable development and improve business efficiency.

Additionally, Vietnam's rice export prices declined after reaching a peak following the announcement of the 2023 World's Best Rice Award given to Vietnam. Meanwhile, Thai rice prices are increasing and are expected to achieve the same level as Vietnamese rice prices. Despite the price decline, Vietnamese rice products are still the most expensive in Asia. Vietnam's rice production in 2023 has reached 41.17mmt, making the plan to export over 8 mmt of rice this year highly feasible.

Chinese Researchers Developed Hybrid Rice Variety to Enhance Africa’s Food Security

Researchers at the Shanghai Agrobiological Genetic Center have successfully developed a new hybrid rice variety that can be grown in Africa. The achievement can help African countries frequently experiencing droughts enhance food self-sufficiency. This innovative variety can save over 50% of water typically required for cultivation and eliminate 30% of fertilizer. Additionally, it can help reduce climate-damaging emissions. After six years of testing in Kenya, the water-saving and drought-resistant rice has proven effective. The team is now promoting diverse rice varieties in 11 African countries, specifically focusing on Botswana, where rice cultivation has not happened for almost five decades. According to a researcher at the Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization, the new rice variety is highly productive, drought-resistant, and water-efficient. This makes it a perfect choice for commercial cultivation.