W50 Salmon Update: Bleak Future Projections in the Norwegian Salmon Market and Russian Fisheries' 10% YoY Growth

Negative Future Projections in the Norwegian Salmon Market

In W50, the Nasdaq Salmon Index reports a marginal 0.11% week-on-week (WoW) increase in the average price of a kilogram (kg) of Atlantic salmon farmed in Norway, representing a rise of just USD 0.01. There's a more notable increase of USD 0.54 month-on-month (MoM). The twelve-week trend indicates a robust surge of 13.51%, amounting to USD 0.91.

Norwegian salmon exports decreased to 22.24 thousand metric tons (mt) in W49 of 2023, down from 23.46 thousand mt in the corresponding week of 2022 and slightly lower than the 22.91 thousand mt exported in W48 of 2023. Norway exported 22.34 thousand mt of salmon and trout, with 16.4 thousand mt going to the European Union (EU). Poland experienced a decrease to 3.8 thousand mt, France imported more at 2.7 thousand mt, the Netherlands increased to 2.08 thousand mt, the United Kingdom (UK) imported 1.84 thousand mt, Spain imported 1.7 thousand mt, Denmark decreased to 1.44 thousand mt, and Italy imported more at 1.4 thousand mt. China received 788 mt, down from W49’s 856 mt, and the United States (US) imported 437 mt, slightly down from W49’s 439 mt.

The 8- to 9-kg category witnessed a significant WoW increase of USD 0.20, reaching USD 9.16. Future pricing expectations indicate a decline in Dec-23 prices to USD 7.68 from W49’s USD 8.02 and a decrease in Jan-24 to USD 9.71 from W49’s USD 9.67. Feb-24 also dropped to USD 9.93 from USD 10.01, and Mar-24 declined to USD 10.08 from USD 10.15. However, Q1-24 was reported at USD 9.68, down from USD 10.09. Q2-24 stands out with an increase to USD 10.34, providing a nuanced perspective on the trajectory of the salmon market in Norway.

Russian Fisheries Achieve 10% YoY Growth with 5 MMT Catch

Russian fisheries recorded a catch exceeding 5 million metric tons (mmt) in the first 11 months of 2023, reflecting an almost 10% year-on-year (YoY) volume increase. This notable upturn is attributed to a successful salmon run. Specifically, the catch volume in the Far East region experienced a substantial growth of 15.3% YoY, totaling 3.8 mmt. The catches of Pacific salmon in this region reached 609 thousand mt, marking a 13% volume surge from the levels observed in 2021.

In the Sakhalin region, the catch of Pacific salmon in the first 11 months of 2023 surpassed 71 thousand mt, signifying a significant 21% increase over the levels recorded in 2021. Notably, enterprises on the island contributed to this figure by producing more than 34.47 thousand mt of pink salmon and 35.15 thousand mt of chum salmon. Additionally, the catch included 1.35 thousand mt of sockeye salmon and more than 812 mt of coho salmon. Exports of Russian fishery products reached 2.1 mmt over 11 months, indicating a robust 13% YoY volume increase and generated USD 5.2 billion in value, representing a 1% YoY increase.