W51 Canola/Rapeseed Update: Global Rapeseed Oil Consumption Hits Record High in 2023, and Canada Anticipates Robust Canola Harvest in 2023/24 MY

Record Global Rapeseed Oil Consumption in 2023

In 2023, global rapeseed oil consumption reached a record 29.8 million metric tons (mmt), marking an 11% year-on-year (YoY) increase, or 3 mmt higher. The surge in consumption is attributed to attractive prices and substantial production. Rapeseed oil's market share increased not only in the edible oil market, particularly in India and China, but also in the biodiesel markets of North America and the European Union (EU). There was a decrease in the premium for rapeseed oil compared to soybean oil in Rotterdam, from USD 263 per metric ton (mt) in 2022 to USD 37/mt in 2023. This impacted the attractiveness of Argentine biodiesel for European buyers, resulting in reduced supplies to the EU from Jan-23 to Oct-23, dropping to 0.2 mmt compared to 1 mmt in the same period in 2022. The decline in rapeseed oil prices also contributed to increased use in biodiesel production in the EU, with consumption expected to rise by 0.4 mmt to a record 10 mmt, by 1 mmt or 40% to a record 3.7 mmt in the United States (US), and by 0.2 mmt to 1.2 mmt in Canada.

Canada Expects 18.3 MMT Canola Harvest in 2023/24 MY

In the 2023/24 marketing year (MY), Canada's canola gross harvest is anticipated to reach approximately 18.3 mmt, according to experts from the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Industry (AAFC). The Dec-23 report adjusted the canola production estimate by an additional 0.9 mmt compared to previous forecasts. Domestic consumption is projected to be 10.8 mmt, up 0.5 mmt from previous forecasts. The estimate for ending stocks was raised by 0.5 mmt to 1.5 mmt, while exports are expected to remain unchanged at 7.7 mmt.

Ukraine Forecasts 800K MT Rapeseed Production in 2023/24

Ukraine anticipates a substantial increase in oilseeds and vegetable oils production in the 2023/24 MY, with a projected growth of over 3.5 mmt, including over 800 thousand mt of rapeseed. The rise is attributed to ongoing efforts to enhance crop yields despite challenges such as military and adverse weather conditions. The estimated production of rapeseed oil is 420 thousand mt, with plans to export nearly the entire volume, totaling 400 thousand mt.

Russia Forecasts 53% YoY Surge in 2023 Rapeseed Exports

In Russia, the estimated export of vegetable oils in 2023 amounted to 6.13 mmt, which is 39% higher YoY. The export of rapeseed for the period under review amounted to 940 thousand mt, up 53% YoY. Almost the entire volume was sent to Belarus (596 thousand mt) and China (325 thousand mt).

Krasnoyarsk Farms to Receive USD 576,223 for Rapeseed and Soybean Production

As of year-end, 49 farms in Krasnoyarsk will receive USD 576,223 for rapeseed and soybean production as part of the "International Cooperation and Export" national project. This support initiative aims to aid oilseed producers in the timely receipt of government support measures. Agricultural organizations eligible for subsidies have demonstrated increased yields of rapeseed and soybeans compared to the average oilseed harvest over the past five years, contributing to a cumulative production volume increase of 62.5 thousand mt.