W51 Salmon Update: Norway's Salmon Market Hits Highs, While Chilean Seafood Exports Face Downturn in 2023

Negative Forecast for Norwegian Atlantic Salmon Market

The average price per kilogram (kg) of Atlantic salmon farmed in Norway reached USD 8.15 in W50, showing a slight increase from USD 7.56/kg in W50 and USD 8.33/kg in W52 of 2022. A week-over-week (WoW) increase of USD 0.03 or 0.38% WoW reported. The average price rose by USD 0.74 monthly, marking a 10% month-over-month (MoM) increase. Norway exported 24.6 thousand metric tons (mt) of salmon in W50, up from 24.3 thousand mt in the same week of 2022 and 22.2 thousand mt in week 49 of 2023. The Norwegian Salmon Council's report revealed that 24.6 thousand mt of salmon and trout were exported, with the European Union (EU) receiving the largest volume at 18.3 thousand mt. China imported 795 mt of Norwegian salmon, and the United States (US) imported 450 mt.

Salmon within the 1-2 kg range constituted 0.72% of total sales, commanding an average price of USD 6.91/kg. Sales for 2-3 kg salmon accounted for 10.29%, with an average selling price of USD 7.30/kg. The 3-4 kg salmon category represented 27% of total sales at an average price of USD 8.05/kg, while the 4-5 kg range comprised 32% of sales, with an average price of USD 8.23/kg. Salmon falling between 5-6 kg were priced at USD 8.37/kg, 6-7 kg salmon at USD 8.08/kg, and 7-8 kg salmon at USD 8.96/kg. The price for 8-9 kg salmon declined to USD 9.71/kg.

Anticipated changes in futures pricing include a decrease in Jan-24 to USD 10.14/kg, a decline in Feb-24 to USD 10.55/kg, and an increase in Mar-24 to USD 10.80/kg. Q1 2024 futures pricing is reported at USD 10.6/kg, while Q2 2024 futures pricing has reached USD 11.17/kg.

Chilean Seafood Exports Grapple with Price Declines

Chilean seafood exports faced a downturn in Nov-23, totaling USD 709 million, marking a 14.4% YoY decrease, primarily attributed to a decline in selling prices for salmon and trout. Sales of salmon and trout fell by 15.1% YoY to USD 562 million. One notable destination market with improved export performance was Brazil, leading with exports of USD 73 million, up 14.9% YoY, driven by increased salmon and trout exports. Mexico followed with USD 24 million, up 5.7% YoY, primarily due to a rise in salmon and trout exports. Spain secured the third position with USD 22 million, driven by increased hake exports and salmon and trout sales, up 48.6% YoY. Key markets witnessing declines in shipments include the US with USD 241 million (down 6.5% YoY) and Japan with USD 139 million (down 34.4% YoY).