W51 Sunflower Update: Global Sunflower Seed Production Set to Rise by 3% in 2023/24, With Ukraine Poised for Strong Growth in Seed and Oil Production

Global Sunflower Seed Production to Surge by 3% in 2023/24 MY

In the 2023/24 marketing year (MY), global sunflower seed production is projected to reach 56.7 million metric tons (mmt), marking a 3% year-on-year (YoY) increase. The forecast suggests an 8% YoY rise in sunflower harvests in Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile, the European Union (EU), Argentina, Turkey, and the United States (US) are expected to experience a decline in production. The estimated global sunflower processing volume for the same period is 52.5 mmt, comparable to the previous season, with heightened refining volumes anticipated in Ukraine, Russia, and the US. Global sunflower oil production is projected to remain stable at 22.1 mmt, mirroring the previous season's level. Forecasts indicate a recovery in oil exports to China, India, and other countries, and the US is expected to increase sunflower oil exports as new crops arrive at processing plants in the coming months, following a recent decline in exports.

Ukraine Anticipates Strong Growth in Sunflower Seed and Oil Production for the 2023/24 MY

In the 2023/24 MY, Ukraine anticipates a significant increase in oilseed production, totaling approximately 3.5 mmt, more than the previous season. This includes projections of a 1.4 mmt increase in sunflower seeds. Moreover, sunflower seed processing is expected to reach 13.5 mmt in the current season, representing over 90% of available sunflower resources. Furthermore, sunflower oil production is forecasted to rise to 6 mmt, surpassing the 2020/21 figure by more than 3%. Sunflower oil production is expected to reach 5.8 mmt in 2023, an 11.5% increase from 2021, with exports projected to be between 5.5 mmt and 5.6 mmt, reflecting a 10% increase.

Russian Sunflower Oil Exports Soar 37% YoY from Jan-23 to Nov-23, Reaching 3.99 mmt

From Jan-23 to Nov-23, Russian vegetable oil exports significantly rose 39% YoY to 6.13 mmt. Sunflower oil exports constitute a major portion, surging by 37% YoY to 3.99 mmt, representing over 65% of the total vegetable oil exports. Notably, India and China are the primary purchasers, acquiring 852 thousand metric tons (mt) and 818 thousand mt, respectively. Additionally, sunflower seed exports reached 313 thousand mt, a 58% increase YoY, with over 85% destined for Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries.

Russia Reduces VAT on Sowing Sunflower and Corn Seeds to 10%

The Russian President has approved a law that lowers the value-added tax (VAT) rate on sunflower and corn seeds designated for sowing to 10%. This reduced VAT rate is now applicable to treated seeds (treated with disinfectants) specifically meant for cultivation rather than consumption as food. Previously, sunflower and corn seeds treated with chemicals were subject to a 20% VAT rate due to their non-food and non-feed purposes.

Bulgaria's Sunflower seed Harvest Drops 21% in 2023, Reaching 1.62 mmt

The sunseed harvest in Bulgaria in 2023 is estimated at 1.62 mmt, reflecting a 21% YoY decrease. This decline is attributed to both a reduction in the cultivated area for the oilseed (down 6% YoY annually to 860.04 thousand hectares and a decrease in its average yield (down 16% to 0.189 mt/ha.