W52 Corn Update: EU Anticipates 15.6% Surge in 2023/24 MY Corn Production; Brazil's Corn Exports Reach 7.57 MMT in Dec-23

Brazil's Corn Exports Expected to Hit 7.57 MMT in Dec-23

Brazil is expected to have exported 7.57 million metric tons (mmt) of corn in Dec-23, indicating an 18% year-on-year (YoY) increase, with 4.78 mmt already shipped. Moreover, another 2.21 mmt of corn is planned for shipment by January 24. The cumulative corn exports for the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) reached 46.7 mmt, representing a 17% YoY growth compared to the previous season.

Lower Safrinha Corn Acreage Expected in Brazil for 2023/24 MY

Safrinha corn acreage in Brazil is expected to be lower for the 2023/24 MY by at least 4.5% YoY. The delay in soybean planting may result in some farmers being unable to plant safrinha corn, while others may opt to switch from soybeans to corn. Additionally, unpredictable weather conditions and lower sales of fertilizers and seeds for safrinha corn compared to the previous year may further impact yields.

EU Raised Corn Production Forecast for 2023/24 MY

The European Commission (EC) has raised the forecast for corn production in the European Union (EU) for the 2023/24 MY from 59.9 mmt to 61.4 mmt, representing a 15.6% YoY increase compared to the previous dry season, but 10.8% below the five-year average. However, the forecast for corn imports to the EU for 2023/24 MY has been reduced from 20 mmt to 19 mmt.

Traders Anticipate Steady Ukrainian Corn Exports in 2024 Amid Logistical Challenges

Traders anticipate a steady stream of Ukrainian corn exports to Europe and North Africa in 2024. However, logistical challenges and potential disruptions from Russian attacks on critical infrastructure pose risks to the supply chain. Facing financial pressures in its agricultural sector, Ukraine has diversified export routes through the EU and the Black Sea, shipping over 5 mmt of farm produce. Political tensions, trade access disputes, and war risks with neighboring EU states may impact Ukrainian corn exports, potentially making free on board (FOB) purchases less favorable for buyers.

Flood Causes 27.6% YoY Decrease in Agricultural Harvest in Russia's Primorsky Region

Agricultural producers in the Primorsky region, Russia, harvested a total of 840 thousand metric tons (mt) of soybeans, corn, and rice in 2023, reflecting a 27.6% YoY decrease. The decline is attributed to the flood, resulting in a shortage of approximately 280 thousand mt of soybeans and corn.

Philippines Extends Reduced Tariffs on Corn Until December 31, 2024

The Philippine president has signed Executive Order No. 50, extending the reduced tariffs on rice, corn, and meat products until December 31, 2024. Prompted by factors like El Niño, African Swine Fever, and trade restrictions, the decision aims to ensure affordable prices, food security, and control inflation. The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Board supported the temporary extension, with the government planning regular reviews of tariff rates to adapt to evolving economic conditions.