W6 Maize (Corn) Update: Brazil's Corn Production Decline and Implications for Global Trade, and EU Considers Import Quota Extension for Ukrainian Corn Exports

Brazil's Corn Production Decline and Ukraine's Export Growth Impact Global Markets

In the latest edition of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, corn production estimates have been revised downward, with Brazil experiencing a notable reduction in production by 3 million metric tons (mmt). Consequently, Brazil's export capacity has weakened, potentially positioning the United States (US) as a leading exporter of corn. Additionally, Ukraine's export capacity for corn has increased by 2 mmt, reflecting a positive trend in exports from the Black Sea region. As a result of these developments, corn prices, which initially remained slightly negative, have recovered after the report's publication.

Corn Prices Decline in Ukraine Amidst Global Market Trends and Domestic Currency Shifts

Corn prices in Ukraine have declined recently due to a decrease in export demand and global quotations, resulting in purchase prices at Black Sea ports dropping by USD 4 to 5 per ton to USD 144 to 150/ton. The price drop is also linked to expectations surrounding the new USDA report and high rates of second-crop corn planting in Brazil. Despite adverse weather conditions in Argentina, the USDA's harvest forecast remains steady at 55 million tons. Meanwhile, the United States (US) has witnessed an uptick in corn exports, with 16.3 million tons of grain shipped as of February 1, 2024, marking a 30% year-on-year (YoY) increase.

El Niño Inflicts USD 2.6 Million in Damages to Philippine Agriculture, Rice and Corn Crops Affected

In the Philippines, the Department of Agriculture reports that the ongoing El Niño weather phenomenon has inflicted an estimated USD 2.6 million (PHP 151.3 million) in damages to the Philippine agriculture sector, particularly impacting rice and corn crops. This figure represents a notable increase from the USD 1.9 million (PHP 109.4 million) reported in Jan-24. Around 3.9 thousand farmers in Western Visayas and the Zamboanga Peninsula have been affected by this situation. In response, the department has allocated USD 17.8 thousand (PHP 1 million) towards assistance efforts, including distributing vegetable seeds and procuring planting materials for less water-dependent crops.

Indonesia's Ministry of Agriculture Collaborates for Corn Self-Sufficiency

The Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture, in partnership with the Indonesian National Military (TNI) and the Iskandar Muda Regional Military Command, is prioritizing the increase in national corn production to achieve self-sufficiency. They focus on utilizing idle land for corn cultivation, distributing free seeds, fertilizer, and machinery, and improving irrigation systems.

Kazakhstan's 2023 Corn Yield Growth Leads to Surplus and Price Decline

In 2023, Kazakhstan's corn yield increased from 181 thousand hectares (ha) to 188 thousand ha, with 1.2 million tons harvested which is 109 thousand tons more than in 2022. However, the country faces a corn surplus due to high harvests, causing a price drop. The Ministry of Agriculture is considering solutions like selling corn to local farms and exporting to Iran and China. The government has increased investment subsidies for grain processing enterprises and developed a Comprehensive Plan for the Development of Processing of Agricultural Products and the Food Industry for 2024 to 2028 to support domestic agricultural producers.