Webinar Recap: Market Trends in the Meat and Seafood Industry

Host: Theo Venter - Global Market Analyst

Speakers: René Salinas - Global Market Analyst

Guilherme Rua - Engagement Manager Seafood Portugal and Spain

Jaison John - Expert Seafood India

Agenda:

1. Emerging Trends in Meat and Seafood Production and Consumption Amidst Economic Challenges

2. Short to Medium-Term Production Outlook for Meat and Seafood

3. Panel Discussion

In Tridge’s July Webinar, Market Trends in the Meat and Seafood Industry, the Tridge team analyzed the current trends in the beef, shrimp, and salmon global markets and provided a short-term production outlook for these markets. The group discussed how inflation has caused a substitution effect favoring cheaper proteins, how the meat and seafood markets have changed, particularly in India and Europe, and how the industry can adapt to new government regulations and environmental pressures.

Emerging Trends in Meat and Seafood Production and Consumption Amidst Economic Challenges

Source: Tridge and Brazil Ministry of Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade and Services

Source: Tridge and USDA

This section gave an overview of the current trends in the beef, shrimp, and salmon markets.

Beef: Brazil, China, and Australia's production are booming, more than offsetting an expected loss in the United States (US), where cattle numbers are dwindling due to previous dry conditions. Brazilian beef export volumes reached their highest level ever recorded for June. As US beef production is declining, it exports less beef, except to Mexico among the major markets as this country’s currency is relatively stronger.

Shrimp: In the case of Japan, imports are lower than pre-pandemic levels. Prices in Japanese yen terms remain fairly elevated compared to the five-year average. Meanwhile, demand in the US remains below last year's levels but still above the five-year average. The market showed some signs of recovery in May. Ecuador and India’s share in the global export market keep increasing, thanks to a cheaper export price.

Salmon: Norwegian farmed fresh salmon exports are now increasing after prices eased from their multi-decade highs of the previous months. Demand, in terms of volume, was suffering because of high prices. Some worries regarding Norway's 'salmon tax' have eased after the bill was voted on and clarified.

Short to Medium-Term Production Outlook for Meat and Seafood

The second part of the webinar presentation gave a short-term production outlook for these markets.

Beef: Beef supply and demand are expected to rise this 2023. Brazil, China, and Australia production growth is expected to more than-offset a decline in the US. Europe’s beef production is expected to continue declining.

Shrimp: Ecuador and India are expected to continue driving the growth of the global shrimp supply, while China is primarily driving the demand, with the US and Japan lagging. Ecuador faces some cost challenges but so far retains its competitive advantage.

Salmon: Demand is expected to increase. As measured by Norwegian exports of fresh Atlantic salmon, demand is expected to remain more or less the same than in 2022.

Panel Discussion:

The presentation was complemented by a panel discussion where panelists Guilherme Rua and Jaison John, answered Theo Venter’s questions.

On the matter of how meat and seafood production, trade, and consumption changed in their regions, Guilherme mentioned how Portugal is one of the largest seafood consumers per capita in the world. Portuguese and Spanish consumption trends are very conservative, with consumers preferring whole fish or less-processed seafood. In contrast, in the European Union (EU), the consumption trends are changing to more processed seafood.

Jaison noted that seafood exports from India in FY 2022-23 were valued at USD 8.09 billion, representing 6% of worldwide fish production. Almost 70% of the value came from shrimp. The seafood industry is expected to grow around 10% each year in the next five years. India is looking to bring down the shrimp cost.

Next, the panelists discuss the key risks and opportunities in the meat and seafood market specific to their regions.

Guilherme pointed out that climate change is a big risk. Other risks include regulatory challenges, traceability and food safety, consumers’ preferences, and overfishing in some countries. Opportunities include: major seafood demand, especially in Portugal and in the EU, association with a healthier diet, innovation and technology, and advanced fishing and farming techniques, among others. Portugal has a huge potential for aquaculture. Tourism is an important factor for Portugal.

Jaison highlighted that India’s biggest challenge is the lack of trained, skilled fishermen. Risks also include the lack of production quality checks, hygienic platforms, facilities, awareness, quality ice, an over-reliance on banks and credits, and changing sea catch trends, among others.

Finally, the webinar addressed how the industry can effectively adapt to government regulations and environmental pressures. Jaison pointed out that the Indian government has to regulate overfishing. India must ensure to train fishermen and adopt good fishing and farming practices. Policies have been changing frequently since the pandemic. The government is supporting India’s seafood and meat exports. Meanwhile, Guilherme emphasized the importance of effectively adapting to government regulations through various actions, such as staying well-informed about policies, adopting best fishing and farming practices, and actively participating in policy discussion, among others.

Click here to view the webinar recording, or click here to view the slides.