W1 Salmon Update: Price Surges, Strong Norwegian Exports, and Turkish Salmon Industry Thrives in 2023

Higher Prices for Larger Norwegian Salmon Drive Market Trends

In W1, the Nasdaq Salmon Index delivered a compelling market snapshot for Norwegian salmon, characterized by notable week-on-week (WoW) dynamics. The per-kilogram (kg) price surged by 17.9% WoW, reaching USD 9.62. This upward trajectory extends over the past twelve weeks, depicting a 26.6% year-on-year (YoY) increase in prices, equivalent to USD 2.02. The weight categories exhibited distinct movements, exemplified by W52 where 1- to 2- kg salmon experienced a WoW increase of USD 1.50. The 3- to 4-kg segment, constituting 34.19% of total sales, saw a notable YoY increase to USD 9.22/kg, with a significant USD 1.32 month-on-month (MoM) rise. At 28.82% of total sales, The 4- to 5-kg category experienced a USD 1.30 MoM surge, reaching USD 9.63. Representing 17.41% of total sales, 5-to 6-kg salmon, recorded a substantial WoW increase to USD 10.38, marking a USD 1.63 rise. Additionally, the 6- to 7-kg category, at 5.73% of the total distribution, achieved an average price of USD 11.02, reflecting a WoW increment of USD 1.71, reflecting a rise in demand.

The Fish Pool exchange's futures expectations hint at an optimistic trend, with Jan-24 futures expected at USD 10.15, Feb-24 at USD 10.56, and Mar-24 at USD 10.82/kg. These forward-looking indicators incorporate insights into market dynamics, encompassing both demand-supply nuances and geopolitical factors. Against this backdrop, Norway's robust salmon and trout exports of 18.5 thousand metric tons (mt) in W51 of 2023: 12.8 thousand mt to the European Union (EU) , 814 mt to China, and 331 mt to the United States (US). Norwegian trout was also successful, soaring to USD 708 million, indicating a 10% YoY increase in value and 4% YoY increase in volume. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian market experienced a rise in export volume by 76% YoY to 8 thousand mt, with the YoY value nearly doubled.

Norwegian seafood exports enjoyed a robust year in 2023, with Poland solidifying its position as the top destination, accounting for USD 2.41 billion, a remarkable 21% YoY increase. This growth was fueled by both increased value and volume, with Norwegian seafood entering Polish markets at a rate of 277.7 thousand mt, reflecting a 4% YoY increase. Salmon reigned supreme, with 189.4 thousand mt finding their way to Poland. Beyond Poland, other key European and North American markets contributed significantly to the overall success. Denmark, the US, France, and the Netherlands imported seafood worth USD 1.89 billion, USD 1.78 billion, USD 1.52 billion, and USD 1.40 billion, respectively.

Turkish Salmon Exports Soar by 28% in Quantity and 9% in Value in 2023

Based on data from the Eastern Black Sea Exporters Association (DKİB), Turkish salmon exports, cultivated in sea cages in the Black Sea after reaching a specific weight in established inland farms, exhibited substantial growth. In 2022, exports amounted to USD 363 million, increasing to USD 396 million in 2023. The exported quantity rose from 49 thousand mt to 63 thousand mt, reflecting a robust 28% YoY surge in quantity and a 9% YoY increase in value.
These exports, spanning 45 countries, were particularly notable in Russia, where 41.5 thousand mt worth USD 232 million were shipped in 2023. This represents a substantial 45% YoY increase in quantity and a 10% YoY increase in value. Germany and Vietnam followed with USD 49.5 million and USD 39.4 million, respectively.

The Eastern Black Sea Region significantly contributed to this growth, with salmon exports rising by 68% in quantity and 38% in value, reaching 26.7 thousand mt worth USD 157.9 million. The DKİB Deputy Chairman expressed optimism, emphasizing the association’s goal to achieve market diversity and focus on expanding into Japanese and Chinese markets in 2024, providing a positive outlook for Turkish salmon exports in 2024.