W10 Salmon Update: Chilean Salmon Exports Grow in Volume, Norway's Price Declined 2.7% WoW

Published 2024년 3월 15일

In W10 in the salmon landscape, recent statistics from the Chilean Salmon Council reveals that Chilean salmon exports in 2023 showed a volume increase but a decline in export value. Total export volume reached 774.5 thousand mt, up by 3.1% YoY, yet total export value fell by 2.1% YoY to USD 6.46 billion. Coho salmon exports from Chile grew by 2.5% YoY, with significant proportions going to frozen products, primarily to Japan, Brazil, and the US. Meanwhile, the Norwegian salmon market saw a short-term price decline in W9 but showed a longer-term appreciation trend, with a 36.33% YoY increase in average price per kg.

Chilean Salmon Exports Balancing Volume Growth with Price Declines

Chilean salmon exports in 2023 exhibited a mixed performance, marked by an increase in volume but a decrease in export value. According to statistics from the Chilean Salmon Council, the total export volume of Chilean salmon and trout reached 774.5 thousand metric tons (mt) in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 3.1%. Despite the volume growth, the total export value fell by 2.1% YoY to USD 6.46 billion compared to 2022. This decline is attributed to a 5% decrease in average export prices, particularly pronounced in the latter half of 2023. The average annual growth rate of Chilean salmon and trout exports has stagnated over the past five years, with a modest 2% increase observed. Atlantic salmon exports grew at an average of 1.8% annually, while Coho salmon exports displayed a slightly higher growth rate of 5.6%.
In 2023, Chilean Coho salmon exports grew by 2.5% YoY, reaching 184.4 thousand mt. Whole fish constituted 77% of exported Coho salmon, while fillets comprised the remaining 20%. The export market for Coho salmon is dominated by frozen products (96.4%), with Japan (59%), Brazil (6%), and the United States (5.8%) being the primary destinations. The US remains the leading export market for Chilean salmon and trout, accounting for 32.7% of total exports. However, the US market witnessed a significant slowdown in growth (-1% YoY) compared to the historical average of 11% between 2017 and 2022. Exports to Japan, the second-largest market, have declined for three consecutive years, with a 14.6% YoY decrease observed in 2023. Brazil, conversely, emerged as a growth market in 2023, with a 10.9% YoY increase in exports, driven by an 87% surge in Coho salmon sales.

Chile's salmon export industry faces challenges in balancing volume growth with export value. Declining average prices pose a concern, highlighting the need for potential adjustments to production strategies or market diversification efforts.

Short-Term Decline Amidst Long-Term Growth in Norwegian Salmon Prices

The recent performance of the Norwegian salmon market presents a complex aspect, characterized by a short-term price decline against a backdrop of longer-term price appreciation. Data from the Nasdaq Salmon Index (NQSALMON), which tracks weekly sales and average prices of fresh Norwegian salmon, reveals a 2.07% week-over-week (WoW) decrease in the average per-kilogram (kg) price in W9. This translates to a drop, from USD 11.02 to USD 10.89/kg.

Despite the WoW, the average price of Norwegian salmon has exhibited an upward trend, with a 7.43% month-on-month (MoM) increase (USD 0.75) per kg compared to Feb-24. Compared to prices from the same period in 2023, the average price per kg has witnessed a significant increase of 36.33% YoY (USD 2.91).