W11 Coffee Update: Global Green Coffee Exports Increased 6.8% YoY in 2023/24, Brazil Leads Surge with 48.9% YoY Growth in Feb-24

Published 2024년 3월 25일

In W11 in the coffee landscape, the ICO reported a 6.8% YoY increase in global green coffee exports in the first three months of the 2023/24 crop year, attributed to the normalization of production conditions in some countries like Peru and Mexico. However, Indonesia's coffee harvest is forecasted to decline by 16.6% Yoy due to damage caused by excessive rainfall. Brazil's coffee exports surged by 48.9% YoY in Feb-24, led by the Conilon and Robusta varieties, but faced challenges at ports, impacting exporters. Meanwhile, Türkiye's coffee exports nearly tripled over the last five years, with Syria being the top destination. Peru witnessed a remarkable recovery in coffee exports in 2024, with significant increases in volume and value compared to the previous year.

Global Green Coffee Exports Increased in 2023/24

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that the recent increase in green coffee exports primarily reflects the return to normal production conditions in some countries after a decline in the previous year. Global exports of green coffee in the first three months of the 2023/24 crop year reached 29.2 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags, marking a 6.8% year-over-year (YoY) increase. Production conditions in Peru have normalized this season after a decline last season, while production activities in Mexico are also progressing relatively smoothly. However, the output of some major coffee-growing regions is forecasted to decrease. In Indonesia, the country's 2023/24 harvest is estimated to decline by 16.6% YoY, totaling 10 million bags. Excessive rainfall between Apr-23 and May-23 caused damage to the agricultural crop, contributing to the decline in output.

Brazil's Coffee Exports Surge in Feb-24 Despite Port Challenges

Brazil's coffee exports surged by 48.9% YoY in Feb-24, reaching 3.626 million 60-kg bags, according to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé). This increase led to a 47.2% YoY rise in foreign exchange revenue, totaling USD 757.3 million. The growth was due to the Brazilian Conilon and Robusta coffees, which experienced a remarkable 531.4% YoY export increase, capitalizing on the international market's demand. Despite this positive trend, the coffee sector faced challenges at ports, with a high rate of ship delays, particularly at the Port of Santos, where delays affected 75% of ships in Feb-24. This issue impacted exporters, with 23 ships experiencing complete closure, leading to unforeseen costs. Despite these challenges, the Port of Santos remained Brazil's primary coffee exporter, handling 72.6% of total shipments, followed by the Rio de Janeiro maritime complex and the Port of Paranaguá, accounting for 24.4% and 1.4% of exports, respectively.

Brazil's 2023/24 Coffee Harvest Sales Reach 84% by March 12, 2024

Sales of Brazil's 2023/24 coffee harvest reached 84% of potential by March 12, showing a 5% increase month-over-month (MoM). Although sales matched 2023's figures, they trailed the historical average of 85% for this period. Arabica coffee sales represented 80% of production, indicating heightened production but still below last year's levels and the average of the past five years. The Southern Region of Minas Gerais saw notable progress in sales, mainly through cooperatives. Furthermore, sales of Conilon coffee remained robust, with producers leveraging high prices and external interest before new coffee entered the market. Conilon sales reached 91% of production, surpassing the previous year's figures and the historical average.

Türkiye's Coffee Exports Triple in Five Years, Reaching 8,652 MT in 2023

According to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), the country’s coffee exports have experienced significant growth, nearly tripling over the last five years. In 2023, Türkiye exported 8.65 thousand metric tons (mt) of coffee to 146 countries, generating USD 57.4 million in revenue, compared to USD 19.2 million in 2019. Total coffee export revenue over the past five years amounted to USD 200.6 million. Syria emerged as the top destination for Turkish coffee exports, followed by Belarus and Russia. The United States (US), Netherlands, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom (UK) were among the countries with the highest demand for Turkish coffee in 2023.

Peruvian Coffee Exports Rebound Strongly in 2024

Peruvian coffee exports in 2023 experienced negative results, but Peru has made a remarkable recovery in 2024, returning to compete at levels seen two years ago. Exports in Jan-24 saw a significant surge in exports, with 27.12 thousand mt valued at USD 156 million, nearly triple the volume and value of Jan-23. This monthly export value surpassed all shipments in 2023, with Oct-23 recording the highest value of USD 141 million. Peruvian agro-exporters supplied coffee to 34 destinations, with Belgium, the US, and Germany emerging as the top three destinations, accounting for 24%, 21%, and 11% of the total exports, respectively.