In W12 in the banana landscape, some of the most relevant trends included:
Banana growers in Cyprus, particularly in Pegeia and Kissonerga, are facing a severe crisis due to prolonged droughts and the shutdown of the Mavrokolympos reservoir, their primary irrigation source. With water allocations drastically reduced, farmers warn that at least half of the banana crops could fail unless urgent solutions are implemented. Unlike olives, lemons, and carob trees, bananas require continuous watering due to their shallow root systems, making them especially vulnerable to water shortages. Without swift reservoir repairs or alternative irrigation sources, the future of banana cultivation in Cyprus remains uncertain, putting long-term production at significant risk.
The district agriculture office in Pune, India, plans to expand banana cultivation from 611 hectares to 3 thousand ha, aiming to increase annual production from 67.6 thousand to 200 thousand metric tons (mt) within five years. The initiative will leverage artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance yields from 42 mt/ha to 65 mt/ha, focusing on key cultivation areas in the Indapur, Baramati, and Daund regions. Advanced warehouses in Sunrise Village will improve export quality, while Solapur district, supported by Ujani dam water, remains a major exporter. Currently, Pune’s bananas are exported to Iran, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with opportunities for expansion into the United States (US), Russia, Japan, and Europe.
The Philippines is actively working to regain its declining market share in Japan’s banana industry, which has fallen from 90% in 2012 to 75% in 2024 due to past pest issues and Japan’s diversification of suppliers. In a recent meeting in Tokyo, Philippine officials urged their Japanese counterparts to reduce tariffs under the Philippines-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (PJEPA), as Japan plans to eliminate tariffs on bananas from Vietnam and other countries by 2028. Highlighting the economic significance of banana production, particularly in Mindanao, the Philippines pushed for bilateral negotiations rather than relying solely on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Discussions also emphasized improving quality standards to secure the Philippines' position as Japan’s leading banana supplier.
Saint Lucia’s banana industry faces growing challenges due to labor shortages and a declining farmer population, which are limiting production and exports to Barbados. Despite government support, a lack of skilled workers is disrupting key operations, particularly harvesting and disease management, including efforts to control Black Sigatoka. Of the roughly 450 active banana farmers, only about 150 are commercially focused, a significant decline from the 8 thousand skilled growers the industry had in the past. Market difficulties, such as rising shipment rejections in Barbados, add further pressure. While government subsidies provide some relief, concerns persist over the industry's long-term sustainability.
Researchers at the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) are developing disease-resistant banana varieties to combat Banana Bunchy Top Virus (BBTV). Spread by banana aphids, this devastating disease affects multiple African countries, including Angola, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Nigeria, Tanzania, and Zambia. With no chemical cure available, controlling BBTV relies on eradicating infected plants and using disease-free seedlings. The IITA has screened 72 banana varieties for resistance, with promising candidates undergoing further development. In Tanzania, where BBTV was first detected in Kigoma in 2020, the disease has since spread to multiple regions, prompting intensified surveillance and preventive measures. Meanwhile, Kenya, where bananas are vital for food security and income, has strengthened monitoring efforts through the Kenya Plant Health Inspectorate Service (KEPHIS) to prevent outbreaks. Farmers are encouraged to report symptoms and implement pest management strategies to control aphid populations and limit further spread.
In Ecuador, banana prices surged by 7.14% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 0.30 per kilogram (kg) in W12, representing a 15.38% month-on-month (MoM) increase. The price rise is due to adverse weather conditions, particularly cold temperatures in key banana-growing regions, which have restricted production and limited supply for export. Additionally, logistical disruptions, including conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as continued shipping delays in the Panama Canal due to drought, have affected deliveries to key markets like Russia and the Middle East. Furthermore, Ecuador's new minimum support price for bananas, which increased from USD 6.85 per box in 2024 to USD 7.25 per box in Jan-25, has influenced export pricing dynamics. These factors combined have tightened supply, contributing to the price increase in W12.
Philippine banana prices increased slightly by 0.79% WoW and MoM to USD 1.28/kg in W12, reflecting ongoing trade negotiations with Japan aimed at reducing tariffs on Philippine banana exports. The Agriculture Secretary has advocated for a review of the PJEPA to secure fairer trade terms and regain market share in Japan, which has declined from 90% in 2012 to 75% in 2024. The anticipation of potential tariff reductions has bolstered exporter confidence, contributing to the slight price increase. However, the outcome of these negotiations remains uncertain, and market dynamics may continue to fluctuate based on future trade developments.
In W12, banana prices in Colombia remained unchanged WoW at USD 0.46/kg, reflecting a 4.17% MoM decrease and an 8.00% YoY drop. This stability is due to balanced supply and demand dynamics, supported by favorable weather conditions and a steady supply. However, the YoY price decline reflects increased competition from other banana-exporting countries and logistical challenges impacting export operations.
Banana prices in Guatemala remained steady at USD 0.22/kg in W12, reflecting a 15.79% YoY increase. This stability is due to consistent export demand from key markets such as the US and Europe and favorable weather conditions supporting steady production. The YoY price rise is due to earlier production shortfalls in 2025, which tightened supply and elevated prices. Additionally, increased input costs, including fertilizers and labor, have contributed to maintaining higher price levels. Despite these factors, the current stability suggests that production and demand are in balance, preventing further price fluctuations.
Philippine banana exporters should implement stricter quality control measures and pest management protocols to regain market share in Japan. Investing in post-harvest handling, cold chain logistics, and farm certification can ensure consistent fruit quality. Exporters can also collaborate with Japanese buyers to align with consumer preferences, such as improved sweetness and blemish-free fruit, to strengthen long-term trade relationships.
Saint Lucian banana exporters and cooperatives should invest in mechanized harvesting tools and training programs to address labor shortages and improve productivity. Providing incentives for younger workers to enter the industry and adopting labor-saving techniques, such as drip irrigation and disease-resistant varieties, can help maintain consistent supply to Barbados. Collaborating with buyers to refine post-harvest handling can also reduce shipment rejections and secure market stability.
Banana growers in Pegeia and Kissonerga should implement water-efficient irrigation techniques, such as drip irrigation and mulching, to maximize moisture retention. Collaborating with agricultural cooperatives to establish rainwater harvesting systems and exploring desalinated or recycled water sources can help mitigate supply shortages. Additionally, shifting to drought-tolerant banana varieties can improve resilience against prolonged dry conditions.
Sources: Tridge, Eurofruitports NV, Freshplaza, GMA News Online, Gov UK, In-Cyprus, Loop News, The Eastleigh Voice