1. Weekly News

India

India Lifts Final Rice Export Curbs to Double Agri Shipments by 2030

India lifted its final restrictions on rice exports, signaling a major policy shift aimed at doubling agricultural exports by 2030 and boosting economic growth. As the world’s largest rice exporter, India’s decision to resume unrestricted rice shipments is placing downward pressure on global prices. The benchmark Thai white rice fell to USD 405 per metric ton (mt) in W12, down from USD 669 in Jan-24. This liberalization move supports India’s broader ambition to grow agricultural and food exports from USD 48.15 billion in 2023/24 to USD 100 billion by the end of 2030.

Nigeria

Nigeria Rice Production to Decline in 2025/26

Nigeria's rice production is expected to decline by 5% year-on-year (YoY) to 7.9 million metric tons (mmt) in the 2025/26 season, while rice imports will rise by 16% YoY to 2.8 mmt. This shift is due to favorable import prices compared to the cost of domestic paddy. Despite improved macroeconomic conditions, including a stronger naira and easing food inflation, domestic rice production is less competitive, prompting increased reliance on imports to meet rising demand.

Thailand

Pressure Mounts on Thai and Asian Rice Exports

Thailand exported over 786 thousand mt of rice to the United States (US) in 2024, up from 730 thousand mt in 2023, strengthening its position in the American market. In contrast, Vietnam exported minimal volumes of rice to the US, capturing only 2.2% of the market with a value of USD 30.84 million in 2023, ranking fifth behind Thailand, India, Pakistan, and China. In response to rising imports, US congressmen urged the President to impose up to 100% tariffs on rice from key exporters such as Thailand and Vietnam to protect domestic farmers. Currently, the US applies a low tariff of just USD 0.014 per kilogram (kg) on imported long grain and jasmine rice. If the government enforces higher tariffs, Thai exporters anticipate a short-term surge in orders as buyers stock up, followed by a market shift toward cheaper suppliers like Vietnam or Cambodia. Thai experts caution that such protectionist policies could reshape US consumer preferences and shrink Thailand’s share in the US rice market.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W13 2024 to W13 2025) 

India

​In W13, India's wholesale rice prices increased by 1.59% week-on-week (WoW) and month-on-month (MoM) to USD 0.64/kg. The recent price increase is primarily due to the government's decision on September 28 to lift export restrictions on non-basmati rice, including exempting non-basmati white rice from export duties and reducing the levy on parboiled rice to 10%. This policy change led to a surge in global demand for Indian rice, subsequently driving prices higher. Moreover, the government's plan to increase food subsidies by about 5% to nearly USD 24.86 billion for the fiscal year starting April 1, 2025, mainly due to higher rice purchases and rising storage costs, has contributed to the upward pressure on rice prices.

Vietnam

In W13, Vietnamese rice prices decreased by 1.64% WoW and MoM to USD 0.60/kg. This is due to the removal of India's rice export restrictions in late 2024, which flooded the global market with additional supply, intensifying competition and pressuring prices downward. Concurrently, key buyers like the Philippines delayed the purchase of approximately 350 thousand mt of Vietnamese rice, opting to renegotiate contracts amid falling prices. Moreover, the onset of Vietnam’s winter-spring harvest, the largest of its three annual rice crops, added further supply to the market during sluggish demand, particularly from major importers such as the Philippines and Indonesia.

United States

In W13, US rice prices remained stable WoW but declined 1.28% MoM and 2.53% YoY to USD 0.77/kg. The price drop was primarily driven by increased domestic supply, as US rice production for the 2024/25 season rose by 2% YoY to 222.1 million hundredweight (cwt), with long-grain rice output increasing by 12%. Moreover, record-high rice imports, especially from Thailand, reached 47 million cwt, further swelling domestic availability. Export demand also weakened, with US rice facing stiff competition from lower-cost suppliers in South America and Asia. Meanwhile, global rice prices declined due to abundant harvests and the removal of India’s rice export restrictions, exerting further downward pressure on US market prices.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Secure Forward Contracts with Indian Suppliers Before Global Demand Peaks

Importers and large-scale rice buyers, mainly from Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, should act swiftly to negotiate forward contracts with Indian exporters, as India has lifted all restrictions on rice exports. This window of opportunity allows buyers to lock in favorable prices before global markets react to India's re-entry and demand begins to rise. Securing forward contracts protects buyers from expected price volatility in the coming months and ensures a consistent and reliable supply chain. For countries and companies heavily dependent on rice imports, this move provides financial predictability, reducing the risk of sudden market disruptions, particularly in regions where food security and price stability are key concerns.

Support Competitiveness of Domestic Rice in Nigeria Through Input Subsidies and Technology

Nigerian stakeholders, particularly agribusinesses and cooperatives, should actively advocate for and implement improved seed varieties, efficient irrigation systems, and greater mechanization to reduce production costs and enhance productivity. By partnering with private sector firms to provide bundled input financing and robust extension services, they can support smallholder farmers in boosting yields per hectare and narrowing the cost gap between domestically produced and imported rice. These efforts would strengthen Nigeria’s food security, lower reliance on rice imports, and safeguard rural livelihoods. In the long run, such coordinated actions will help develop a more competitive and sustainable domestic rice industry, meeting national demand and regional market opportunities.

Diversify US and Thai Export Strategies Toward Non-Traditional Markets

With the risk of US import tariffs and oversaturation in traditional markets, Thai and US exporters should explore and intensify marketing efforts in alternative regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe. Trade missions and localized branding (e.g., for jasmine rice) can help build market loyalty. This reduces dependence on the US market, mitigates the impact of future protectionist policies, and opens up new growth avenues in under-served rice-consuming regions.

Sources: Tridge, AgroInfo.vn, Agriculture, UkrAgroConsult