W17 Beef Update: Colombia Imposes Import Restrictions on US Beef, Argentina Sees Surge in Beef Exports to China

Published May 3, 2024

In W17 in the beef landscape, Brazilian fresh beef exports surged in Apr-24, potentially reaching a monthly record. Daily shipments exceeded 10 thousand mt until April 19, totaling over 155 thousand mt sent abroad. This increase is expected to help achieve a greater balance with domestic supply, stabilizing the market in the short term. Meanwhile, Argentinian exports of chilled and frozen beef in Mar-24 showed a decrease from the previous month but a significant YoY increase, with China remaining the leading export destination. In response to cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza in dairy cattle, Colombian trade officials have imposed restrictions on US beef imports from affected states. Additionally, Paraguay continues to export beef to the US despite potential prohibitions. The USDA projects a decline in China's imports of pork, beef, and chicken in 2024, impacting global meat exports and leading exporting countries to seek alternative markets.

Brazilian Fresh Beef Exports on Track for Monthly Record in Apr-24

Brazilian fresh beef exports surged in Apr-24, reaching a potential monthly record. According to the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), daily shipments surpassed 10 thousand metric tons (mt),, accumulating over 155 thousand mt sent abroad. This figure marks the second-best April in history. Analysts at Cepea anticipate that this increased volume will help to achieve a greater balance with domestic supply, indicating a more stable market in the short term.

Argentinian Beef Exports Maintain Strong Performance in Mar-24

Argentinian exports of chilled and frozen beef totaled 64,460 mt in Mar-24, showing a 6.8% month-on-month (MoM) decrease from Feb-24 but a significant 19.1% year-on-year (YoY) increase from Mar-23. Despite a 4.9% MoM decrease in export value, it reached USD 242.5 million, reflecting a 2.0% YoY increase. China remained the leading export destination, constituting 76.6% of total exports, with Mar-24 witnessing the highest volume of shipments to China for the year. Moreover, beef exports surged to 195,415 mt during Q1-24, representing a remarkable 24% YoY increase, with a value of USD 736 million, marking an 11% YoY increase. However, the average export value contracted by 10% annually. Sales to China notably surged during the first quarter, reaching 43,900 mt of bone-in meat and 109,593 mt of boneless meat, showing significant annual increases of 66% and 17%, respectively.

Colombia Imposes Import Restrictions on US Beef Due to Avian Influenza Concerns

In response to cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza in dairy cattle across eight states as of April 15, Colombian trade officials have imposed restrictions on United States (US) beef and beef product imports from those affected states. The Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced the restrictions on April 22. The affected products include fresh and frozen beef and beef derivatives from cattle slaughtered on or after April 15 in Idaho, Kansas, Michigan, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, South Dakota, and Texas. However, shipments may still proceed through port inspections if exporters possess a valid import permit.

Paraguay's Beef Exports to the US from Jan-24 to Mar-24

From Jan-24 to Mar-24, Paraguay exported 1,423 mt of beef to the US, bringing in USD 5.8 million. This premium destination paid USD 4,133/mt, ranking as the 12th most important market for Paraguay's red protein exports, according to data from the National Animal Quality and Health Service (SENACSA). Paraguay exported 497 mt of beef in Jan-24, generating USD 1.945 million. In Feb-24, USD 2.273 million was earned from the shipment of 514 mt. Mar-24 witnessed the export of 412 mt, generating USD 1.661 million in revenue.

USDA Forecasts Decline in China's Meat Imports, Impacting Global Market Dynamics

The USDA projects a decline in China's imports of pork, beef, and chicken in 2024, expecting a reduction of 3 million metric tons (mmt) compared to 2020, which accounts for 17% of global meat exports for these species. Despite a slight 1% decrease in global meat exports since 2020, China's share has fallen significantly by about a third, driven by an estimated 64% reduction in beef imports and a decline in pork imports. This decline in imports from China has led exporting countries to seek alternative markets, intensifying competition. The USDA anticipates a 4% decrease in Chinese beef imports as consumers seek more affordable protein, compounded by ample domestic beef supply in China. Although China's share of global beef exports surged between 2017 and 2022, the USDA forecasts a 5% YoY decline in 2024. Conversely, the USDA expects US beef imports to rise as China's imports decline, with domestic beef production projected to be the lowest since 2018 due to the continued contraction of the US cattle herd and sustained domestic demand.