In W19 in the soybean landscape, the USDA adjusted upwards its 2022/23 global soybean stocks from 100.3MMT to 101.04MMT, while analysts had forecast at 99.4MMT. Meanwhile, for the 2023/24 soybean season, the USDA projected global soybean stocks to reach 122.5MMT, while analysts were expecting reserves of 105.8MMT. The USDA also expects global soy production to reach 410.59MMT, up compared to the most recent 2022/23 crop estimate of 370.42MMT. Tridge’s analysis indicates that the 2023 Brazilian soybean harvest is on course and is expected to be completed within the schedule, with crops from the harvest anticipated in the markets in the next few weeks. Therefore, Brazilian farmers are ramping up the speed of their soybean sales, albeit prices are currently low. The 2022/23 Brazilian soybean crop is forecast to reach 154MMT, 18% higher than the crop output in MY 2021/22 and 20% higher than the five-year average, becoming a record harvest. SAFRAS and Mercado outline that the 2022/23 Brazilian soybean harvest reached 96.6% of the total expected area, an increase compared to W18 when the harvest was at 94.5%. Brazilian soybean production in the current harvest was positive for most producing states, except for Rio Grande do Sul, which faced problems that led to the reduction of crop productivity. According to Cargonave, Brazilian soybean exports in May 2023 are expected to reach around 15.3MMT, an upward adjustment of over 3MMT compared to their W18 projection of 12MMT. This is linked to a record harvest of over 150MMT in Brazil. ANEC expects Brazilian soybean exports in May 2023 to reach 12.084MMT, up from 10.268MMT achieved in May 2022 but down from 13.963MMT reached in April 2023.
The USDA indicates that as of the week ending May 5th, US soybean export inspections were pegged at 394.76K MT, down 13.22K MT from the previous week and 112.18 compared to the same week in 2022, with shipments mainly destined for Indonesia and China. So far in 2022/23 MY, US soybean export inspections are 47.855MMT, up compared to 47.76MMT in the same period in 2021/22. The USDA also reports that 2023/24 US soybean sowing reached 35% of the designated area, an improvement compared to the market projection of 34%, 19% achieved in W18, 11% in the same period in 2022, and the average of 21%. PMU and INBIO report that 2022/23 Paraguayan soybean production reached 9.459MMT in an area of 3.687M ha, giving an average yield of 2,565kg/ha. They also indicated that of the total soybean sown area, 41% corresponded to medium sowings, 33% to early sowings, and 26% to late sowings, where Alto Paraná (970.89K ha), Itapúa (717.31K ha), and Canindeyú (687.37K ha) were the regions with the largest planted area. The Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange states that the Argentine soybean harvest reached 36.4% of the sown area in W18, an advance of 8.2% points compared to W17, but still 18.3% points lower than the annual comparison. The Argentine average productivity of soybean is expected to reach 1,580kg/ha, with a production estimate maintained at 22.5MMT. Only 2% of the soybean crop was in good or excellent condition in W18, while the share in normal condition rose to 35% and the percentage in fair or poor condition decreased to 63%. Rosario Grains, in its monthly report, estimates the Argentine soybean harvest in the 2022/23 season to reach 21.5MMT, down 6.5% compared to the previous soy crop estimate of 23MMT. While Argentina is one of the world’s leading exporters of processed soybeans, the current 2022/23 season has been impacted by a drought and other severe weather conditions that are causing major losses for both farmers as well as the cash-strapped government.
South African soybean supply in the 2023/24 season is projected to reach 2.888MMT, including an opening stock as of March 2023 of 171.9K MT, domestic commercial deliveries of 2.705MMT, 4K MT of imports, and a surplus of 6.5K MT. South African soybean demand (domestic and exported) is expected to total 2.359MMT, including 23K MT processed for human consumption, 210K MT processed for animal (full fat) feed, 1.765MMT for crushing (oil and oilcake), 200MT withdrawn by producers, 400MT released to end-consumers, 10K MT seed for planting purposes, and a balancing amount of 250MT (net receipts and net dispatches). South Africa’s soybean exports in the 2023/24 season are also estimated to reach 350K MT. Lastly, the South African soybean closing stock is projected (on February 28th, 2024) at 528,847MT. With an average processed quantity of 166.5K MT per month, indicates the available stock levels for 3.2 months.
