1. Weekly News

Greece

Greek Olive Oil Market Rebounds After Overreaction to Spanish Production Forecasts

Detailed traceability in Spain's olive oil sector, which is widely regarded as a benchmark, has led to misinterpretations in Greece. Early forecasts of high global and Spanish production following EXPOLIVA 2025 prompted domestic buyers to sharply reduce prices. While Spain's market remained stable, Greek buyers overreacted, triggering unjustified price drops and parity between lower-quality oils and premium extra virgin. However, signs of recovery are emerging across several Greek regions. Spain’s upcoming harvest is now expected to be moderate, leading to a reassessment of global supply estimates. As inventories still exist and the next season appears promising, the Greek market is stabilizing, and producers are urged to manage remaining stocks strategically, anticipating steadier demand through the summer months.

Spain

Olive Oil Market Stabilizes Amid Heat and Pest Concerns, with Rising Refined Demand

During the third week of June, the Spanish olive oil market at origin remained stable with slightly increased trading activity as producers and packers aligned their positions. Persistent high temperatures and the emergence of the olive moth (prays) in key regions like Baeza, La Loma, and Ibros are causing concern, leading to early downward revisions in harvest forecasts, especially in Jaén, where yields could drop by around 10%, while Córdoba shows more favorable prospects. Although private storage is being discussed, its effectiveness in addressing low farmgate prices is debated. Meanwhile, demand for refined olive oil has surged, with prices rising, driven partly by Italian refiners facing local shortages. Lower retail prices for mild and intense olive oils in Spain are also boosting domestic consumption, a trend expected to be confirmed in upcoming National Association of Edible Oil Packers and Refiners (ANIERAC) data.

Sierra Mágina Recovers Olive Oil Production with Strong Harvest and Renewed Promotional Efforts

Following two poor seasons, the 2024/25 harvest in Sierra Mágina marked a return to pre-drought production levels thanks to favorable weather and 2024 rainfall. Cooperatives and mills under the Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) Sierra Mágina collected 150,200 tons of olives and produced 31,770 tons of oil, triple the output of the previous two years, with an average yield of 21.15%. Certified extra virgin olive oil reached 8.5 million kilograms (kg), while 1.25 million liters (L) were bottled under the PDO seal. Promotional activities are underway to boost sales, including participation in major trade fairs and European Union (EU)-funded initiatives. The PDO also advanced innovation through projects like FENOLIVA (studying health components in extra virgin olive oil) and OLICOMP3D (developing eco-friendly packaging). Educational programs and regional studies supported by LEADER funds further reinforced the cultural and economic value of the local olive sector.

Spain Launches Public Consultation for Olive Oil Market Regulation in 2025/2026

Spain’s Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food has initiated a public consultation to draft the marketing regulation for olive oil for the 2025/2026 season. The move aims to gather input from industry stakeholders under the framework of EU regulations, which allow member states to implement market-stabilizing measures such as temporary product withdrawals or non-food uses when justified by market conditions. The regulation must be prepared in advance to ensure readiness for the upcoming harvest, and its implementation will depend on confirmed high production estimates and potential market imbalances. The consultation runs from June 18 to July 2.

Tunisia

Tunisia Strengthens Olive Oil Leadership with 48% Production Increase and Record Exports in 2025

Tunisia exported 195,000 tons of olive oil between Jan-25 and Jun-25, with over 80% classified as extra virgin and around 40,000 tons as organic, reaching more than 60 international markets. The country is expected to produce 340,000 tons of olive oil this year, a 48% increase compared to 2024. As the world’s third-largest exporter and fourth-largest producer, Tunisia’s olive oil sector is strategically vital, accounting for 45% of the nation’s agri-food export revenues and representing 20% of the global olive-growing area.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Olive Oil Pricing Important  Exporters (W25 2024 to W25 2025) 

Spain

Olive oil prices in Spain rose slightly by 0.49% week-on-week (WoW) and 2.74% month-on-month (MoM) in W25, driven by growing international demand, particularly from Italian refiners facing domestic shortages, and a rebound in domestic consumption following retail price reductions. Although overall supply remains strong due to a production recovery supported by favorable spring weather, early harvest downgrade estimates caused by pest concerns and rising temperatures have added caution to the market, supporting modest price increases. Despite this, prices are still down 52.03% year-on-year (YoY), reflecting the sharp contrast with 2024’s drought-induced highs, when limited supply pushed prices to record levels.

Italy

In W25, olive oil prices in Italy rose 0.56% WoW, 0.93% MoM, and 5.33% YoY to USD 10.86/kg, reflecting continued market tightness. Although euro-denominated prices saw a slight decline, the price in US dollars increased due to exchange rate shifts. The upward trend is driven by persistent structural constraints on production, including drought, Xylella fastidiosa-related tree losses, erratic weather, and pest pressures, which have limited the recovery of output. Strong domestic and export demand, compounded by recent incidents of organized theft along the supply chain, is sustaining pressure on limited supplies and preventing meaningful downward movement in prices.

Greece

In W25 olive oil prices in Greece rose 4.35% WoW and 3.55% MoM, though they remained 57.32% lower YoY due to prior market overcorrections. The recent price increase reflects a market rebound after a premature and exaggerated domestic reaction to high global production forecasts, particularly from Spain. Greek buyers misinterpreted Spanish traceability data and sharply lowered prices, even equating lower-grade oils with premium extra virgin. As Spain's actual harvest outlook has been revised to more moderate levels, Greek producers and traders have reassessed supply expectations, leading to more rational pricing. Improved confidence, tighter stock management, and anticipation of stable summer demand have all contributed to the upward price correction.

Tunisia

In W25, olive oil prices in Tunisia rose 1.16% WoW after a recent dip, though they remain down 1.13% MoM and 47.98% lower YoY. The price volatility is rooted in a significant national production increase, up by around 48% from the previous year, which created a domestic supply surplus. Although Tunisia maintained strong export volumes and expanded its reach to over 60 countries, global price declines severely reduced export revenues. The Tunisian government and the National Oil Office intervened to manage the oversupply by purchasing and storing excess oil, but narrow profit margins and a depressed international pricing environment continue to weigh on market value. The slight weekly rebound suggests short-term stabilization efforts may be taking hold, though broader recovery is constrained by global conditions.

3. Actionable Recommendations 

Promote Refined and Organic Segments in Underserved Markets

As refined olive oil demand increases in Spain there is clear opportunity to expand into underserved consumer markets such as North America and Asia. Producers across Spain, Italy, Greece, and Tunisia should segment their product offerings and promote refined and organic olive oil lines through targeted marketing, health-focused labeling, and sustainability messaging. Positioning these oils as affordable, healthy alternatives will attract new consumer bases while diversifying product portfolios and reducing overdependence on bulk extra virgin categories.

Expand Promotional Campaigns Using PDOs and Innovation Successes

Spain’s Sierra Mágina region demonstrated how Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) certification, coupled with innovation in product quality and sustainable packaging, can drive recovery after poor harvests. Tunisia, Greece, and Italy should adopt similar strategies by actively promoting their PDO-labeled oils alongside research and development initiatives (e.g., health benefits of polyphenols or eco-packaging innovations) at international trade fairs such as Anuga, SIAL, or Gulfood. Leveraging EU or national funding to support these campaigns will boost global recognition, justify premium pricing, and build long-term brand equity in competitive markets.

Sources: Tridge, Elaias Karpos, La Voz de Galicia, Oleo, Oli Merca, Revista Agricultura