1. Weekly News

Italy

Italy Intensifies Crackdown on Widespread Olive Oil Fraud

In 2024, a significant portion of Italy’s food fraud prevention efforts focused on olive oil, reflecting its status as a high-risk category for fraudulent activity. The Central Inspectorate of Quality Protection and Fraud Repression (ICQRF) dedicated more than 8,200 of its 54,000 food inspections to vegetable oils, primarily extra virgin olive oil. The findings revealed systemic issues, with 23% of samples showing irregularities and nearly 15% containing oil that did not match the product description. Nineteen percent of operators were found to be non-compliant with regulations. This crackdown led to extensive enforcement actions, including 72 criminal reports, 896 administrative sanctions, and the seizure of 455,000 kilograms (kg) of illicit oil valued at over USD 4.7 million (EUR 4 million). Common frauds included mislabeling foreign oil as Italian and adulterating extra virgin olive oil with lower-grade seed oils and artificial coloring. A key tool in these efforts is the national digital olive oil registry (RTO), which enables real-time supply chain tracking. These stringent controls are deemed essential for safeguarding the integrity and global reputation of the "Made in Italy" brand.

Italian Producers Condemn Below-Cost Promotions on Extra Virgin Olive Oil

UNAPROL, the Italian Olive Consortium representing over 100,000 growers, has voiced strong condemnation against major retailers for selling 100% Italian extra virgin olive oil at unsustainable promotional prices. The consortium highlighted recent instances where high-quality olive oil was offered to consumers at less than USD 7.06 per liter (L) (EUR 6/L), a figure significantly below the minimum wholesale price of USD 11.18/kg (EUR 9.50/kg) recorded in mid-Jun-25. UNAPROL’s President described the practice as "profoundly damaging," arguing that it uses a symbol of Italian agri-food identity as a "decoy product" to attract customers. This strategy devalues the immense work of producers, misleads consumers about the true cost of quality, and creates severe economic pressure in a sector already grappling with rising costs and product shortages. UNAPROL asserts that this practice damages the reputation of Italian oil and has committed to addressing the issue with all supply chain actors, including escalating the matter at a ministerial-level meeting on June 26.

Spain

Spain's Booming Olive Oil Exports to US at Risk Amid Renewed Tariff Threats

Renewed threats from the United States (US) President to impose tariffs on Spain have once again placed the nation's vital olive oil sector in a vulnerable position. Olive oil stands as Spain's most valuable export to the US, with sales reaching USD 1.19 billion (EUR 1.013 billion) in 2024 from 113,416 tons shipped. This represents a remarkable 58% increase in value from the USD 753 million (EUR 640 million) recorded in 2023, highlighting the sector's significant growth and deep reliance on the American market. The potential tariffs stem from threats to single out Spain from the rest of the European Union (EU) to correct what the US President deems an unfair trade deficit. While the threat extends to other agricultural products like wine, the impact on olive oil would be particularly severe given its leading export status. This looming uncertainty poses a substantial risk to the continued success of Spain's booming olive oil industry, creating significant concern for producers who have heavily invested in expanding their presence in the US market.

Improved Harvest Drives Sharp Drop in Spanish Olive Oil Prices

After two years of record increases, Spanish olive oil prices have fallen significantly, offering relief to consumers. Data from Jun-25 shows the average retail price for Spanish olive oil dropped by 19% compared to the previous year, leading a downward trend that also saw Italian oil fall by 14% and Greek oil by 5%. This price reversal is primarily attributed to a much-improved 2024 harvest in Southern Europe. Spain’s olive harvest increased by approximately 28%, boosting the supply of raw materials and enabling producers to reduce prices. Strong competitive pressure across the market has also contributed to the decline. The faster price drop for Spanish oil is linked to its higher sales volume, which allows retailers to move through older, more expensive inventory more quickly than slower-selling varieties. With purchase prices in Spain already at a two-year low and forecasts for another bountiful harvest, prices are expected to continue falling and stabilize at more historically normal levels.

Spanish Farmers' Group Disputes Bumper Harvest Claims, Citing Production Challenges

Spanish farmers' association Asolite is challenging widespread predictions of a "bumper harvest" for the upcoming olive oil season, forecasting a more modest production of between 1.08 and 1.275 million tons. Representing traditional olive growers, the group argues that overly optimistic announcements were the primary cause of a recent, damaging price drop that pushed values below production costs for many farmers. Asolite contends that the harvest will be significantly reduced by factors including heatwaves during critical flowering periods and the impact of parasites. The organization believes that with this more realistic production scenario, prices must rise immediately to ensure growers can cover their costs. They warn that at the current demand rate of 120,000 tons per month, the forecasted supply will be insufficient to meet demand for the entire year. Consequently, Asolite is advising farmers and cooperatives with lower production expectations to consider carrying over current stocks into next year to leverage the anticipated price increases.

Spain to Withdraw Surplus Olive Oil in First-Ever Move to Stabilize Prices

Spain’s Ministry of Agriculture has announced a groundbreaking plan to mandate the withdrawal of surplus olive oil from the market, a first-of-its-kind intervention to prevent a price collapse. The measure, enacted under EU regulations, comes as the 2025-2026 harvest is projected to rebound to 1.4 million metric tons (mmt), which has already caused source prices to fall sharply. This move follows two years of extreme market volatility, where severe droughts led to historic production lows and sent consumer prices soaring to unaffordable levels of up to USD 10.59/kg (EUR 9/kg). With the market now swinging from scarcity to abundance, major agricultural organizations have backed the government's preemptive strategy to protect producers from a potential crash. The plan aims to create stability after a period of extremes, though it raises questions about the impact on consumers who have only recently seen relief from record-high costs. A public consultation on the final order concluded on July 2.

Tunisia

Tunisian Olive Oil Faces Dual Threat as US Tariff Grace Period Expires

Tunisia’s vital olive oil sector is facing renewed pressure this month as a 90-day tariff grace period from the US expires, according to a warning from the Tunisian Observatory of the Economy (OTE). The US is a crucial market, accounting for nearly 29% of Tunisia's olive oil export value in 2024, with shipments worth USD 480 million. If implemented, a proposed 28% US tariff would severely damage Tunisia’s competitiveness against EU suppliers, who would face a lower 20% duty. Beyond this direct impact, the OTE warns of a potential domino effect. If new tariffs also reduce Spanish and Italian exports to the US, these countries may cut their own bulk purchases of Tunisian oil, which they use for blending and re-export. Combined, the US, Spain, and Italy purchase roughly 80% of Tunisia's total olive oil exports. This highlights an urgent need for Tunisia to diversify its export markets to reduce dependency and ensure economic stability.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg) 

Yearly Change in Olive Oil Pricing Important  Exporters (W26 2024 to W26 2025) 

Italy

Italy’s market remains under pressure due to limited stock and ongoing production challenges. In W26, Italian extra virgin olive oil prices decreased marginally week-on-week (WoW) to USD 10.79/kg from USD 10.86/kg in the previous week. Italian olive oil prices remained relatively steady during the month of Jun-25, only dropping 0.28% month-on-month (MoM). However, prices are still elevated year-on-year (+5.99%) reflecting persistent scarcity and strong demand for high-quality oils. Export demand continues to be robust. However, production is expected to remain constrained for the coming 2025/26 season due to drought and alternate-bearing cycles. There may be some rebound in northern and central regions, but overall output is likely to stay below historical averages. Thus, Tridge expects that Italian extra virgin olive oil prices will remain elevated for the foreseeable future.

Greece

In W26, Greek extra virgin olive oil prices rose to USD 4.20/kg, up from USD 4.08/kg in the previous week, which is a 2.94% WoW increase. Olive oil prices in Greece have picked up marginally over the past two weeks after a drop in W24 but remain relatively stable around the USD 4 mark over the past 1.5 months. However, it should be kept in mind that prices are down 56.02% YoY following the historically low production during the 2023/24 season. For the upcoming 2025/26 harvest, orchards in the Peloponnese show 15–20% more flowering nodes than last year, indicating a potentially strong crop. With preliminary expectations of a strong upcoming harvest, prices in Greece are expected to remain around the current levels for the time being. Producers remain cautious and are focused on clearing inventories before the new harvest.

Tunisia

In Tunisia, extra virgin olive oil prices increased 0.23% in W26 to USD 4.38/kg, up from USD 4.37/kg in the previous week. However, prices are down 47.86% YoY due to the record production output in the 2024/25 season. Tunisia continues to export large volumes, but export values remain under pressure due to global price pressures from other major exporters such as Spain and Greece. For the 2025/26 season, Tunisia anticipates a robust harvest, with good rainfall reported recently and preliminary reports suggesting that the flowering season is going well. However, weather remains a concern for small, non-irrigated producers. Due to the good projected harvest, exports are expected to remain strong, with prices remaining under pressure from both high domestic production and production from other major producers.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Implement Strategic Inventory and Risk Management

Given the conflicting harvest forecasts in Spain, government intervention, and geopolitical tariff risks, market players should avoid speculative extremes. Producers and cooperatives should hedge against volatility by strategically managing inventory—holding back some stock as advised by farmer groups to counter the price slump—while traders should use forward contracts to lock in prices and mitigate the risks of both supply shocks and tariffs.

Accelerate Market Diversification and Fortify Brand Equity

The heavy dependence on the US and key European markets is a clear vulnerability for producers in Spain and Tunisia. Exporters must accelerate diversification into emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and South America, while simultaneously investing in traceability and brand storytelling to justify premium prices, combat fraud, and defend against the brand devaluation caused by retail price wars.

Strengthen Supply Chain Collaboration on Pricing and Quality

The internal conflicts in Italy highlight a critical disconnect between producers and retailers that ultimately harms the entire value chain. To create a more stable and sustainable market, producer associations and large buyers should collaborate to establish fair pricing standards that avoid "decoy" promotions and better communicate the value of high-quality, authentic olive oil to the end consumer.

Sources: Tridge, OlivoNews, Olive Oil Times, Made in Vilnius, Walaw, Ecofin Agency