W26: Cherry Update

In W26 in the cherry landscape, Tridge’s analysis indicates that the wholesale price of cherries in Turkey increased by 21% WoW, reaching USD 0.84/kg by the end of Jun-23. This surge followed a previous downward trend in May-23 but rebounded in the last week of Jun-23 due to heightened purchasing activities, particularly from the European Union (EU) market. The ongoing cherry campaign in Turkey is showing promising signs, with expectations of a 37% YoY increase in production in the cherry-producing regions of Amasya, Anatolia, totaling 52 thousand metric tons (mt). Despite persistent challenges posed by unfavorable weather conditions, cherry production in Turkey has not been deterred. In contrast, northern Italy, notably Emilia-Romagna, has faced adverse weather conditions, including heavy rain, hailstorms, and flooding, causing significant damage and the discarding of cracked cherries. Spain has also encountered difficulties, with storms devastating 70% of the cherry harvest in the Jerte Valley and limited water supply affecting regions such as Murcia, Almería, Alicante, Castilla-La Mancha, and parts of Catalonia and Aragon due to drought conditions. With demand surpassing supply, tension is rising in the EU markets due to the shortage of cherries in the two major EU cherry-producing markets. Consequently, there has been a notable increase in EU purchases of Turkish cherries, contributing to the upward price surge. The successful Turkish cherry harvest and increased EU demand are expected to continue driving Turkish cherry prices upward in the near future.

The harvesting of early cherry varieties in Hungary has commenced and it is expected that in the coming weeks, Hungarian cherries will continue to be available in shops and markets. Hungarian cherry cultivation reached 13 thousand ha, with the annual yield typically reaching approximately 60 thousand mt. Despite challenges including spring frosts, inclement weather during flowering, and significant temperature fluctuations during fruit set, experts forecast a near-average cherry quantity. While weaker crop attachment usually leads to yield losses, the remaining fruits are larger, resulting in a national crop that is expected to be only 15-20% less than in 2022. Hungarian cherry consumption averages 10-15 thousand mt annually, with canned cherries being a popular choice available throughout the year. The excellent quality of Hungarian cherry varieties has also created high demand in the German market. A significant portion of domestic cherries, typically 60-80%, is exported, primarily to Germany, with a significant proportion used for canning. Hungarian cherries are widely utilized in the canning industry, as well as in freezing, juice production, fresh markets, drying, and the production of brandy.

In Italy, adverse weather conditions have significantly impacted cherry production, resulting in limited quantities available in the markets. The 2023 production, which is already nearing its end, has been notably short-lived. The scarcity of cherries, particularly from Italy, led to price increases despite the very low quality of the available produce. In contrast, the Spanish cherry product, which was more abundant, has been able to sustain prices and capitalize on this situation. Experts indicate that there are several factors that are expected to shape Moldova's sweet cherry market in 2023. This includes unfavorable weather conditions during pollination that is expected to result in a lower 2023 harvest compared to 2022, potentially reaching around 17 thousand mt. Labor shortages and increasing wages for seasonal workers may also hinder cherry harvesting. Despite the improvement of cherry quality due to technological advancements, differentiation in prices is expected between small and large cherries. Additionally, insufficient post-harvest infrastructure limits export opportunities, despite the potential to utilize the EU quota for duty-free exports. As a consequence, experts anticipate that 2023 cherry exports from Moldova will likely be lower than in 2022, reaching slightly over 13 thousand mt. Lastly, it was only in W26 that significant shipments of Ukrainian Morello cherries began to appear in the market. The current season for sour cherries in Ukraine started a few weeks later than in 2022 but with higher prices. Presently, prices for sour cherries range from USD 1.35-1.89/kg, a significant increase of 70% compared to the beginning of the 2022 season. The price surge is attributed to strong demand, while there is an expectation of production decline due to spring frost. It's also noteworthy that the Morello cherry quality does not meet expectations due to unfavorable weather conditions that led to smaller fruits that are already showing signs of cracking and rotting on the trees.