In W26 in the rice landscape, a delayed and subdued monsoon in the paddy belts of West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Jharkhand in India raised concerns about crop sowing and yields, potentially leading to elevated prices of paddy and rice. The Ministry of Agriculture shows that farmers have sown paddy across 1 million ha, lower than 2022's 1.6 million ha due to a 30% rainfall deficiency in Jun-23. West Bengal, the largest paddy grower, received 28% below-normal showers, while Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Jharkhand experienced deficiencies of 64%, 38%, and 72%, respectively. The El Niño prediction of record-high day temperatures in 2024, resulting in reduced rainfall in many regions, further exacerbates the situation. This led to a prediction of a potential drop of at least 20% in paddy across India in the upcoming kharif season. Non-basmati rice prices are expected to trade at least 15% higher than in 2022 when fresh harvests hit the market in Nov-Dec due to the anticipation of sowing delays impacting the kharif paddy crop's quantity and quality. If the monsoon does not pick up in the coming weeks, non-basmati rice prices may even reach USD 0.49/kg. The lack of proper spatial distribution of monsoon rainfall may lead to a reduced rice yield of about 64-66kg after milling a quintal paddy, compared to the usual 69-71kg. Paddy accounts for over 40% of India's food grain basket, making it the most-consumed grain in the country, with domestic demand reaching around 105 mmt.
The Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA) indicates that paddy rice prices in the markets of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil are experiencing slight fluctuations. This price situation is driven by resistance to sales from farmers and an improvement in demand. CEPEA adds that the prices of essential farm inputs are experiencing a downward trend. As a result, the exchange ratios of rice for certain inputs become more favorable to rice growers, increasing their purchasing power. This combination of factors is contributing to the stability and strength of the rice market for farmers in the region. The Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation (Midagri) reports that, during the first four months of 2023, paddy rice was one of the Peruvian agricultural products that experienced the highest growth at 11.3%. This increase in paddy rice production has had a positive impact on the income of small-scale farmers. The growth in paddy rice production can be attributed to the recovery of crop areas, facilitated by improved access to water resources and the replenishment of main reservoirs in the northern regions due to the summer rainfall. Peruvian paddy rice prices rose from USD 0.28/kg in Jun-22 to USD 0.37/kg in Jun-23. The regions that experienced significant growth in paddy rice production as of Apr-23 are La Libertad (+135%), Piura (+67%), and Lambayeque (+15%). Notably, reservoirs such as Poechos and San Lorenzo in Piura, Tinajones in Lambayeque, and Gallito Ciego in Cajamarca are approaching their maximum storage levels, which bodes well for the progress of the rice campaign. The ministry also highlights that precipitation and temperature levels have been above normal, further supporting the favorable conditions for rice cultivation.
Lastly, during W26, the prices of barley rice in the Egyptian domestic markets registered a significant increase of USD 22.65/mt compared to W25, driven by higher demand during the Eid Al-Adha. The Rice Division of the Chamber of Food Industries reveals that the price of broad-grain barley rice increased from USD 498.37/mt in W25 to USD 520/mt in W26. Similarly, fine-grain barley rice prices rose from approximately USD 472.48/mt to about USD 491.89/mt. The price of white rice also increased by the same value, ranging from USD 744.31-841.40/mt, depending on the type, quality, breakage rate, and beat. Despite the abundance of supply and preparations by the Ministry of Supply for the Eid Al-Adha season, the return of demand and the approaching holiday contributed to the price rise. However, it is expected that rice prices will decline after the Eid Al-Adha holidays, with an increase in supply and a return to normal market levels. Experts anticipate a potential decline for the final consumer in the coming period if the decrease in white rice prices continues in the governorates. The Egyptian government plans to release imported white rice into the market before Eid Al-Adha at a price of USD 0.65/kg. Egypt's rice cultivation area for the summer season is estimated at around 724 thousand acres for traditional strains in nine governorates, along with 200 thousand acres for water-saving varieties and 150 thousand acres for water with relatively high salinity. Egypt's annual production of white rice reached approximately 3.6 mmt, while consumption stands at around 3.2 mmt.