1. Weekly News

Greece

Greece's Olive Oil Sector in Crisis Amid Climate Change and Theft

Greece's vital olive oil industry is confronting a severe and multifaceted crisis as extreme weather conditions decimate production. The devastating impacts of climate change, including prolonged heatwaves, insufficient winter cold, and catastrophic wildfires that destroyed over 11,000 acres of orchards in 2024, have resulted in critical shortages. One cooperative leader stated that the impacts "almost destroyed all our production." This scarcity has directly fueled a troubling crime wave, with reports of large-scale thefts, including one brazen heist of 37 metric tons (mt) of oil. With production costs rising, many farmers are being forced to abandon their groves entirely. The situation has become so dire that the government has even fast-tracked visas for undocumented workers to staff the remaining groves. This crisis poses a significant threat not only to a cornerstone of the Greek economy, representing 7% of gross domestic product (GDP), but also to a product fundamental to its cultural heritage and daily life.

Italy

Italian Olive Mills at Risk as Modernization Funds Stall

Italy’s Associated Oil Mills (FOA Italia) has issued a stark warning to the Ministry of Agriculture, denouncing critical delays in the disbursement of national recovery funds intended for the modernization of oil mills. The bureaucratic paralysis is blocking essential investments and threatening the survival of numerous producers, with significant issues reported in key regions such as Sicily, Puglia, and Tuscany. FOA Italia President described the situation as "dramatic," stating that many entrepreneurs are now financially overexposed. The delays are so severe that many mills may not be able to reopen for the next pressing season. The association emphasizes that the crisis stems not from market issues but from the state's failure to provide the promised funds. FOA Italia is demanding immediate government intervention to resolve the payment backlog and prevent widespread closures within the vital sector.

Italy Strengthens Position as Top Olive Oil Supplier to Ukraine

Despite the ongoing conflict, Italy has reinforced its position as the leading supplier of olive oil to Ukraine. According to new data, Italian olive oil exports to the nation surged by nearly 22% in the first five months of 2025 compared to the previous year, reaching a total value of USD 3.12 million (EUR 2.67 million). This significant increase occurred even as Ukraine's total olive oil imports from all countries experienced a slight decline of 1.5%. With this performance, Italy now commands a dominant 43.8% market share in the Ukrainian olive oil market. The country's main competitors, Spain and Greece, hold market shares of 29.3% and 23.1%, respectively. This trend highlights the continued strong demand for Italian agri-food products in the Ukrainian market.

Spain

Spain Strengthens Olive Oil Sector with New Transparency Rules

In early Jul-25, the Spanish government enacted significant regulatory changes to enhance transparency and monitoring within its crucial olive oil and table olive sectors. Spearheaded by the Ministry of Agriculture, the new royal decree strengthens the Olive Oil Market Information System (SIMO) to improve data quality and traceability. A key provision now requires olive mills to submit an annual declaration of the previous season's production, broken down by quality (extra virgin, virgin, and lampante), before it can be marketed. This is expected to provide more accurate data for market analysis. Furthermore, the regulations acknowledge the growing importance of by-products by requiring olive pomace dryers to submit monthly activity reports. Reporting for organic producers has also been streamlined, shifting from monthly to annual declarations to simplify administrative processes while maintaining data integrity. These measures aim to create a more transparent and robust market environment for the world's leading olive oil producer.

Spanish Farmers Demand Protection Amidst Plummeting Prices

Following the announcement of new olive oil marketing regulations, Spain's Union of Farmers and Ranchers (UPA) has voiced urgent concerns, insisting the rules must shield producers from market speculation. The union reports a dramatic fall in prices at the source, dropping nearly 50% since early 2024. This creates a stark contrast with stable production costs and the significantly higher prices for Italian olive oil. Anticipating a larger harvest for the 2025/26 season, the organization is demanding the inclusion of crisis storage mechanisms in the new regulations to prevent extreme price volatility. They are also calling for improved price monitoring systems and expressing apprehension over potential US tariffs, which could further destabilize the market. The union has urged the Ministry to take decisive action to protect a sector of immense national and international importance from these mounting pressures.

Tunisia

Tunisian Olive Oil Exports to Brazil Surge by 119%

Tunisia's olive oil exports to Brazil have increased by a remarkable 119% over the last two years, establishing the North African nation as Brazil's fifth-largest supplier of the product. This significant growth is attributed to concerted promotional efforts, including the participation of Tunisian companies in major Brazilian food fairs like the São Paulo Supermarket Association Trade Fair (APAS) Show. A recent reduction in Brazil's import taxes on food products has further bolstered this trend. The surge in olive oil sales is a key driver behind the overall growth in bilateral trade. In 2024, total Tunisian exports to Brazil reached approximately USD 71 million, part of a growing economic relationship that saw Brazil's total imports from Tunisia rise by nearly 15%. The departing Tunisian ambassador, Nabil Lakhal, highlighted the shared commitment of both governments to intensify these ties, which has been further supported by the opening of Tunisia's first commercial office in São Paulo in Jul-24.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg) 

Yearly Change in Olive Oil Pricing Important Exporters (W27 2024 to W27 2025) 

Italy

In Italy, extra virgin olive oil prices are climbing again, with the price in W27 rising 1.58% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 10.96/kg. Resultantly, the price in Italy is up 1.48% month-on-month (MoM) and up 7.03% year-on-year (YoY). Italian olive oil is currently trading at a significant price premium compared to other major exporting countries, with prices more than double in Italy compared to countries such as Spain and Greece. The steady weekly and monthly price increases are a direct result of dwindling domestic stocks. Following a very poor 2024/25 harvest, the limited supply of authentic Italian olive oil is being depleted. With strong, consistent demand from both domestic consumers and premium export markets, buyers are competing for the scarce remaining volumes that meet their quality standards, bidding prices higher on a near-constant basis. This upward pressure is expected to continue at least until the new harvest season begins.

Greece

In Greece, extra virgin olive oil traded at USD 4.24/kg in W27, up marginally by 0.95% over the past week. The olive oil price jumped a substantial 8.44% over the past month but is still down 56.02% since the same time last year. The gains over the past month is largely due to tightening end-of-season supplies coupled with concerns for the next harvest. With the 2024/25 campaign winding down, available stocks of high-quality Greek extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) are becoming scarcer. As buyers look to secure the last volumes before the new harvest, this increased competition for limited supply is pushing prices up. Furthermore, a significant heatwave across the Mediterranean in Jul-25 is raising serious concerns about the development of the upcoming 2025/26 crop. The extreme heat can cause fruit drop and reduce oil accumulation, creating uncertainty and adding a risk premium to current prices. Lastly, the major YoY decrease in price can be attributed to a rebound in domestic and broader European production, especially in Spain.

Tunisia

In Tunisia, extra virgin olive oil prices are up 4.34% WoW and have risen 5.79% over the past month, bringing the price to USD 4.57/kg in W27. Despite the recent price rise, Tunisian olive oil prices are still down 44.74% compared to the same week last year. The short term price rise is driven by weather concerns coupled with strong export demand. Like the rest of the Mediterranean, Tunisia is being affected by the Jul-25 heatwave. This is creating significant uncertainty for the upcoming 2025/26 harvest, as extreme heat can negatively impact fruit development and final yields. This weather risk is being priced into the current market. Furthermore, Tunisia has had a successful export season, capitalizing on the production shortages in other key regions. As the season concludes, the remaining stocks are being met with firm demand, pushing prices higher for the available volumes. However, the massive production rebound in the 2024/25 season put significant downward pressure on prices throughout 2025 resulting in the significantly lower YoY price.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Implement Climate-Resilient Agricultural Practices

The recurring production crises in Italy and Greece underscore the urgent need to adapt to climate change. Producers across the Mediterranean should prioritize investments in climate-resilient infrastructure and techniques. This includes adopting advanced, water-efficient irrigation systems to combat drought, planting more heat- and drought-tolerant olive cultivars, and implementing sustainable soil management practices to improve water retention and tree health. For governments, this means streamlining support, such as Italy's stalled modernization funds, and directing them toward these adaptive measures. By building resilience at the grove level, the sector can mitigate the devastating impact of extreme weather, stabilize supply, and ensure long-term viability. This proactive approach is more sustainable than reacting to crises after they occur and is essential for the future of Mediterranean olive oil production.

Diversify Sourcing to Mitigate Supply and Price Risk

For global buyers, importers, and bottlers, the extreme price divergence between Italy and the rest of the Mediterranean highlights the significant risk of relying on a single sourcing region. A robust, diversified sourcing strategy is now essential for navigating market volatility. Buyers should actively build relationships with suppliers in multiple key producing countries, including Spain, Greece, and Tunisia. The recent surge in Tunisian exports to Brazil demonstrates its growing capability as a reliable, large-scale supplier. By spreading procurement across different regions, companies can buffer themselves against localized production shocks, like the one currently seen in Italy. This strategy not only ensures a more stable supply chain but also provides leverage against regional price spikes, allowing for more predictable and competitive long-term planning.

Strengthen Producer Organizations and Market Transparency

The plight of Spanish farmers, who face plummeting prices despite a good harvest, highlights a structural weakness in the supply chain. To ensure their economic survival, producers in Spain, Greece, and Tunisia must strengthen cooperatives and producer organizations. These groups can collectively negotiate better prices, invest in shared storage facilities to manage supply releases (a form of the "crisis storage" demanded in Spain), and market their products more effectively. Furthermore, governments should follow Spain's lead in implementing a robust market SIMO. Providing transparent, real-time data on production, stocks, and prices empowers farmers to make better-informed selling decisions and discourages speculative practices within the supply chain, ultimately creating a more equitable and stable market for all stakeholders.

Sources: Tridge, Agrodiario, OlivoNews, EFA News, ANBA, Express