1. Weekly News

Brazil

Accelerated Harvest Suppresses Global Prices

Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest is 77% complete as of July 16, exceeding last year’s 74% pace and well above the five-year average of 69%. Conilon is nearly at 88% and Arabica is around 58% completion as of early July. Rapid harvesting across Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo is accelerating supply into port corridors, triggering downward revisions in global price forecasts as Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) futures declined over 2% this week.

Tariff Threat Sparks Temporary Rally Amid Price Bearishness

Despite the brief rally triggered by United States (US) plans for a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee slated for August 1, the underlying bearish trend persisted as harvest pressure outweighed the trade shock. Growers and exporters emphasize that unless demand outside the US sharply increases, inventories may accumulate, maintaining downward risk, despite temporary volatility.

Colombia

National Beverage Law Signals Cultural and Sector Support

Colombia’s Congress has officially declared coffee the country’s national beverage, highlighting an institutional commitment to safeguarding farming livelihoods and elevating sector identity amid global competition and internal challenges.

Labor Violation Reports Put Ethical Premiums at Risk

Non-profit journalism organisations Repórter Brasil and Coffee Watch revealed serious labor violations, such as crowded dorms, unwashed facilities, and minimal enforcement of labor law, even on Rainforest Alliance- and Fairtrade-certified farms in Antioquia and Huila. These findings have disrupted buyer confidence, prompting audits from certifying bodies and raising concerns ahead of tightened regulatory regimes like the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR).

Vietnam

Export Revenue Sets New Record, Driven by Price and Demand

Vietnam's coffee exports reached USD 5.45-5.50 billion in the first half of 2025 (H1-2025), exceeding the full-year 2024 target in just six months. This was driven by a 5.3% rise in volume and a 59.1% increase in average unit price, fueled by strong demand from Europe, North America, and Asia.

Supply Strains and Climatic Risks Temper Optimism

Despite booming export earnings in Vietnam, analysts highlight thinning inventories, concerns over El Niño-related weather volatility, and growing contributions from Brazil’s record Robusta crop as factors that could create downward pressure on prices later in the year. Domestic prices, particularly green bean rates, are already showing signs of reversal from earlier highs as supply tightens.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Coffee Pricing Important Exporters (W30 2024 to W30 2025)

Brazil

In W30, Brazilian wholesale coffee prices trended soft to flat, reaching USD 12.08 per kilogram (kg), up only 0.39% week-on-week (WoW) and down 2.65% month-on-month (MoM) as harvest activity accelerates and physical availability increases. Tradewheel supplier listings indicate steady drops in the lower band of retail-to-wholesale spreads, reflecting that rising farm-gate supply is pressuring local price dynamics. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Arabica futures eased modestly from Jul-25 peaks, despite earlier dampened production expectations, as timely rainfall and accelerating exports offered limited uplift.

Wholesale prices in W31 are likely to remain stable. Unless harvest flow slows unexpectedly or major export orders emerge, domestic prices are unlikely to break significantly lower. Key indicators to watch include futures trends and any shift in export parity driven by currency fluctuations or quality premiums.

Colombia

Colombian coffee prices maintained a resilient tone in W30 at USD 12.02/kg, demonstrating a 2.15% WoW increase. This stability is supported by tight supply as the planting season begins and internal stocks are drawn down. Though falling margins in international premiums have dampened enthusiasm, the depreciating Colombian peso is helping underpin exporter returns.

In W31, seasonal supply constraints should provide floor support. However, if labor compliance issues deepen or buyers reallocate volumes toward lower-cost origins, premiums may compress further. Traders should pay attention to any shifts in exchange rates or global Arabica sentiment.

Vietnam

In W30, Vietnamese coffee prices remained relatively stable at USD 3.64/kg, up 3.45% WoW. However, year-on-year (YoY) prices remain under pressure, down 27.72% as harvest projections rose and supportive speculative positions unwound, amplifying local price weakness even as export demand holds steady.

In W31, wholesale prices are likely to remain stable. Unless export contracts accelerate or weather disrupts green bean availability, prices may hover near recent lows. Traders should monitor ICE London futures and input price movements; any pick-up in international demand or El Niño forecasts could quickly shift pricing dynamics.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Leverage Short-Term Buying Opportunities

With Vietnam’s Robusta wholesale prices declining due to harvest pressure and softening global futures, roasters and importers should consider locking in short-term supply contracts at current favorable rates. This could help secure lower input costs, especially ahead of potential volatility from speculative buying or weather-related disruptions later in the year. Monitoring ICE Robusta futures and Vietnamese port-level activity can help time purchases effectively. Additionally, buyers should watch for further discounts or local incentives from exporters eager to offload stocks before the next harvest cycle, creating room for opportunistic bulk buying.

Monitor Currency Movements in Colombia to Optimize Export Strategies

Given the Colombian peso's recent depreciation, exporters can benefit from hedging currency exposure and adjusting Free-on-Board (FOB) pricing to stay competitive while protecting margins. While internal prices remain high, leveraging Foreign Exchange (FX) trends could make Colombian beans more appealing to international buyers, especially if premiums compress further. Risk-conscious players should also diversify destination markets to offset reduced US buying sentiment. Exporters can also work with cooperatives to optimize traceability and value-added certification schemes, which retain premium pricing despite macroeconomic headwinds.

Capitalize on Harvest Momentum in Brazil for Strategic Forward Selling

Brazilian producers and cooperatives should consider incremental forward sales as harvest progress expands local availability and puts mild pressure on wholesale values. With global Arabica demand expected to remain strong through Q4, securing contracts now, even at slightly compressed prices, could offer a hedge against future currency swings or logistic constraints. Real-time quality assessments and batch certifications can enhance contract value.

Moreover, producers should leverage any temporary dips in domestic freight or processing costs to lower total sales costs and improve competitiveness in key overseas markets like Europe and Japan.

Sources: Tridge, Nasdaq, New York Post, The Washington Post, Vietnam News, Repórter Brasil, Global Coffee Report, CMB News