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In W31 in the orange landscape, water has been restored to citrus groves in Eastern Sicily, Italy, after a year of drought, enabling irrigation for approximately 800 ha of orange groves in the Catania plain. In South Africa, the Southern African CGA revised its orange export projections downward due to severe winter weather, reducing forecasts for navel and Valencia oranges. Furthermore, Andalusian citrus production in Spain faces a decline due to persistent drought, with the current campaign's output expected to be nearly two million tons, a 16.4% reduction compared to the last four seasons. Meanwhile, Florida's orange production shows signs of recovery after hurricane damage and citrus greening, with the USDA projecting a 14% YoY increase in output to 17.96 million boxes for the 2023/24 MY. Regarding weekly pricing, orange prices in Egypt continued to increase, reaching USD 0.29/kg, with a 12.71% WoW rise and a substantial 100% MoM increase due to disruptions in international trade and higher-than-normal temperatures affecting yields. In the US, wholesale prices of oranges increased by 5.46% WoW with a 12.12% MoM rise and a 32.74% YoY increase, primarily driven by the impact of HLB disease, causing a significant decline in orange production.

1. Weekly News

Italy

Water Restored to Citrus Groves in Eastern Sicily After Drought

The restoration of the water supply to Eastern Sicily’s citrus groves has begun with the activation of two pumps and pipelines. These are now operational, channeling water from the Biviere di Lentini, the only lake in the Syracuse area that remains full after a year of drought.Holding 80 million cubic meters (m³) of water, this lake will support the irrigation needs of orange groves across approximately 800 hectares (ha) in the Catania plain. The initial pump, which can draw about 400 liters (L) per second, was activated, with a second pump set to follow soon. The USD 654.9 thousand (EUR 600 thousand) required for the repairs was provided by a contribution from the Sicilian Region to the Land Reclamation Consortium. The issue was recently addressed during a meeting in Syracuse with the Minister of Agriculture and regional representatives, underscoring the success of collaborative efforts in resolving the water crisis affecting Sicilian citrus production.

South Africa

Southern African Citrus Growers Adjust Orange Export Projections Due to Extreme Weather

The Citrus Growers Association (CGA) of Southern Africa revised its orange export projections for the 2024 season downward due to severe winter conditions in South Africa. Extreme weather events, including strong winds, torrential rain, and frost, significantly damaged the fruit and crucial agricultural infrastructure. The CGA notably reduced its forecast for navel oranges and made its most significant cut to the Valencia orange projections this season. The expected export volume of 15-kilogram (kg) boxes of navel oranges was adjusted to 21 million, reflecting a 19% reduction from the initial estimate of 25.7 million. The projected export volume of Valencia oranges is now at 51.6 million boxes, down 11% from the earlier forecast on May-24 of 56 million. Furthermore, the primary growing regions in South Africa, such as Letsitele, Hoedspruit, and Marble Hall, were particularly impacted by frost, contributing to the reduced forecasts.

Spain

Andalusian Citrus Production Faces Decline Due to Persistent Drought

The persistent drought in Andalusia is hindering the full potential of citrus growers, leading to anticipated losses in the 2023/24 harvest. The Andalusian Citrus Board reports that citrus production for the current campaign is expected to reach nearly 2 million tons, a level comparable to the previous season. This volume reflects a significant reduction of 16.4% compared to the average of the last four seasons, primarily due to ongoing water shortages. Specifically, the production of sweet oranges declined by 2% year-on-year (YoY), further illustrating the impact of the adverse weather conditions on the region's citrus industry.

United States

Florida Orange Production Shows Recovery After Hurricane Ian and Citrus Greening Challenges

Florida's orange groves show signs of recovery after years of hurricane damage and the debilitating effects of citrus greening. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Florida's orange production for the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) is projected to reach 17.96 million boxes, marking a nearly 14% YoY increase. This is a positive sign for the state's citrus industry, though it remains significantly below the 41.2 million boxes produced in the 2021/22 season before Hurricane Ian devastated the groves in Sept-22. The recovery of the trees is evident, with improvements in grove health reported due to treatments and disease-resistant tree varieties. However, newly planted trees typically take five to six years to mature and contribute to the crop. The ongoing challenge of Huanglongbing (HLB) disease, a bacterial infection causing misshapen fruit, continues. In response, growers are utilizing oxytetracycline injections, which has helped improve grove health over the past two years, to combat the pathogen Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Orange Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

* All pricing is wholesale
* Varieties: Spain, South Africa, and the US (Navel), Italy (Tarocco), and Egypt (overall orange average)

Yearly Change in Orange Pricing Important Exporters (W31 2023 to W31 2024)

* All pricing is wholesale
* Varieties: Spain, South Africa, and the US (Navel), Italy (Tarocco), and Egypt (overall orange)
* Blank spaces on the graph signify data unavailability stemming from factors like missing data, supply unavailability, or seasonality

Egypt

In W31, orange prices in Egypt continued to increase, reaching USD 0.29/kg , with a 12.71% week-on-week (WoW) rise and a substantial 100% month-on-month (MoM) increase. This price surge is primarily due to disruptions in international trade, which led to increased shipping costs and longer transit times. Additionally, higher-than-normal temperatures and climate changes have adversely affected orange yields and quality, further contributing to the higher prices. Despite the improved efficiency in trade movement, the combined impact of elevated shipping costs and reduced supply led to a significant price increase.

United States

Wholesale prices of oranges in the US in W31 have increased by 5.46% WoW to USD 1.68/kg, compared to USD 1.59/kg in W30, marking a 12.12% MoM rise and a 32.74% YoY increase. This price surge is primarily driven by the ongoing impact of HLB disease, which led to a significant decline in orange production. HLB severely affected citrus trees in Florida, Texas, and California, causing reduced yields and bitter, deformed fruit. The resulting shortage in supply, coupled with persistent high demand, contributed to the substantial rise in wholesale prices, reflecting the broader increase in consumer prices for orange juice and other citrus products.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Expand Citrus Supply Chains to Mitigate Price Surges

Egypt should diversify and expand its citrus supply chains by exploring alternative international trade routes, such as shipping through ports in Turkey or the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which can offer more efficient and cost-effective transit options. Moreover, it should secure more stable shipping partnerships and improve logistical efficiency to help mitigate the impact of increased costs and reduced supply on orange prices. This strategy will stabilize prices and ensure a more resilient supply chain amid climate and trade disruptions.

Diversify Export Markets to Mitigate Forecast Reductions

The CGA should actively seek new export markets to counterbalance the downward revision in orange export projections due to severe winter conditions. By targeting emerging markets in Asia and the Middle East, such as Vietnam and Saudi Arabia, the CGA can reduce reliance on traditional markets and potentially stabilize revenue. Expanding market reach will help offset the impact of reduced export volumes for Navel and Valencia oranges and support the industry amid challenging weather conditions.

Implement Water-Saving Measures to Mitigate Drought Impact in Spain

Andalusia in Spain should immediately adopt advanced water-saving irrigation technologies, such as drip irrigation and soil moisture sensors, to mitigate the effects of the ongoing drought on citrus production. By investing in these technologies, citrus growers can improve water efficiency, protect crop yields, and reduce 2023/24 season production losses. This proactive approach will help stabilize output and support the sustainability of the citrus industry in Andalusia.


Sources: Tridge, Freshfruitportal, Freshplaza, Comitedecitricos, Terraevita, Davidsonian, CanalRural, Valenciafruits

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