1. Weekly News

Chile

Chile Anticipates 33% YoY Increase in Hass Avocado Harvest for 2024/25 Season

Starting in Sep-24,Chile'supcoming Hass avocado season is projected to yield 200 thousand tons, marking a 33.3% year-on-year (YoY) increase from the previous year's 150 thousand tons. This boost is due to favorable weather conditions that have enhanced fruit production. Of the total harvest, 55% (110 thousand tons) will be dedicated to the domestic market, reflecting Chile's strong avocado consumption culture. The remaining 90 thousand tons are expected to be exported, with Europe receiving 74%, followed by Latin America, Asia, and the United States (US). These projections will be updated as the season progresses.

Colombia

Colombian Avocado Exports to US Surged in 2024

According to the Colombia Avocado Board (CAB), Colombia's avocado exports to the US surged threefold during the first half of 2024 (H1-24). Based on Hass Avocado Board’s (HAB) data, this surge reflects the growing demand for avocados in the US, the world’s largest fruit importer. Colombia’s expanding avocado acreage and the maturity of new plantations since 2020 have bolstered the supply. With over 400 certified orchards and 27 packing plants, Colombia is positioning itself as a primary player in the US avocado market, driven by high-quality products and sustainable practices.

Ecuador

Ecuador Expands Its Role in Avocado Export Market

Ecuador is rapidly advancing in the avocado industry, moving from a minor exporter to a significant player. Previously, the country exported about 20 containers of avocados annually to the European Union (EU) and Russia. With approximately 8 thousand hectares (ha) in cultivation, Ecuador plans to increase exports to two containers per week starting late Sep-24. This boost aims to exploit the global supply gap between Sep-24 and Dec-24. Ecuador is working to stand out with its unique harvest timing and is seeking Global Gap certification. This season, the country will focus on formalizing production and will certify six plantations by Sep-25.

Kenya

Kenyan Avocado Exports to China Dropped After Strong Start

Kenya's avocado exports to China have sharply declined in 2024 after a promising start. Data from China General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC) shows that Kenya exported 742.9 thousand kilograms (kg) of avocados to China in the first seven months of 2024, an 80% YoY drop from 3.6 million kg during the same period last year. This significant decrease has led to an 82% fall in export earnings, down to USD 1.2 million. Despite a strong initial entry into the Chinese market, Kenya's avocado exports now lag behind its EU shipments, which totaled 64.9 thousand metric tons (mt) in 2023. With avocado consumption in China still relatively low compared to Europe, Kenyan exporters are now focusing on the European market and exploring other growth opportunities in Asia and the Middle East.

Mexico

Michoacán Increases Supervision on Avocado Production Amid Environmental Concerns

The Michoacán Environment Secretariat addresses environmental violations by preparing 1.5 thousand new complaints related to illegal land use changes for avocado and red strawberry cultivation, in addition to 327 existing cases. These complaints, which cover almost 5.5 thousand ha, are being monitored by the Guardian Forestal satellite system that has been in use for three years. This effort is part of a broader certification process for over 149 thousand avocado orchards in the state, aimed at meeting environmental standards and addressing concerns about deforestation linked to avocado production. Failure to comply could jeopardize avocado exports under the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA). The state has seen an expansion of avocado cultivation to 160 thousand ha across more than 24 municipalities, while strawberry farming spans over 26 thousand ha.

Peru

Peruvian Avocado Export Value Rises in Jul-24 Despite Decline in Volume

In Jul-24, Peru exported 114.1 thousand tons of avocados, earning USD 245.2 million. This represents a 9% YoY decrease in volume but a 32% YoY rise in value, driven by a 45% YoY price increase to USD 2.15/kg. Despite a 12% YoY drop in volume, the Netherlands remained the top destination, with exports valued at USD 73.4 million, reflecting a 48% YoY growth. The US, the second-largest market, saw a 21% YoY volume decline but a 4% YoY increase in value. Spain was the only market to record volume growth, with a 14% YoY rise, leading to a 77% YoY value increase.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Avocado Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Avocado Pricing Important Exporters (W36 2023 to W36 2024)

Mexico

In W36, avocado prices in Mexico increased by 4.14% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 5.42/kg, up from USD 5.20/kg in W35. This rise reflects a 14.07% month-on-month (MoM) increase and a 105% YoY surge. The price increase is primarily driven by continued drought conditions in key growing regions like Aguascalientes, which have constrained supply. Additionally, rising labor costs due to new federal regulations requiring social security benefits for avocado workers have further increased prices. Strong demand from the US market and enhanced trade relations between the US and Mexico have also contributed to the upward price trend. Despite these increases, the significant YoY surge highlights the ongoing impact of persistent supply challenges and heightened production costs over the past year.

Peru

Avocado prices in Peru increased by 3.78% WoW to USD 0.94/kg in W36, up from USD 0.90/kg in W35. This rise reflects a 10.42% MoM increase and a 35.87% YoY surge. The WoW and MoM price hikes are due to ongoing supply constraints amid stable and rising demand, particularly from major markets like the US and the EU. Persistent adverse weather conditions, including irregular rainfall and extreme temperatures, continue to affect avocado yields, contributing to the price increases. The significant YoY surge reflects a reduced supply and strong demand compared to the previous year, which has driven prices higher despite efforts to stabilize production.

Spain

In W36, the wholesale price of avocados in Spain stood at USD 5.80/kg, marking a 10.59% WoW decrease from USD 6.49/kg in W35. This decline is due to a temporary oversupply in the market and ongoing production challenges, which have exerted downward pressure on prices. Additionally, there is a 16.14% MoM decrease from USD 6.92/kg in W35. The MoM drop reflects the gradual adjustment of the market to an increased avocado supply and the stabilization of supply and demand conditions. Despite these fluctuations, prices remain significantly lower, down by 46.31% YoY. This substantial YoY decrease is primarily due to a higher avocado supply in 2024, which has mitigated some of the price impacts from past environmental difficulties.

Chile

In W36, Chilean avocado prices increased slightly by 0.60% WoW to USD 4.24/kg, up from USD 4.21/kg in W35. This small increase reflects continued strong demand for Chilean avocados and persistent supply constraints. Additionally, there is a 1.32% MoM rise, highlighting ongoing stability in the market. The YoY growth is at 54.12%, compared to USD 2.75/kg in W36 2023. This significant YoY increase is driven by reduced import volumes and sustained demand from key export markets like the US and the EU, which have kept prices elevated despite recent market adjustments.

4. Actionable Recommendations

Strengthen Compliance with Environmental Regulations

The Michoacán Environment Secretariat should enforce stricter compliance with environmental regulations by addressing the new complaints related to illegal land use changes for avocado and strawberry cultivation. This includes monitoring these cases using the Guardian Forestal satellite system and ensuring all involved growers adhere to environmental standards. This proactive approach will help prevent potential risks to avocado exports under the USMCA and support sustainable agricultural practices in the state.

Diversify Export Markets to Offset Decline in Chinese Sales

Kenyan avocado exporters should diversify their market focus by increasing efforts in the EU and exploring growth opportunities in Asia and the Middle East. This strategy will help mitigate the impact of the decline in avocado exports to China and reduce reliance on a single market. Expanding into these regions allows exporters to balance their portfolios and enhance overall export performance.

Sources: Tridge, Nobis, Producereport, Portaldelcampo, Agraria, Jornada, Eastfruit, Freshplaza, Agraria