1. Weekly News

Argentina

Argentina's Rice Production Up 15% in 2023/24 Season

Argentina's rice sector reported a 15% year-on-year (YoY) increase in rice production for the 2023/24 cycle, reaching 1.29 million metric tons (mmt), 164,915 metric tons (mt) more than in the 2022/23 cycle. The production increase was accompanied by an 11% YoY rise in the cultivated area, with an additional 20,150 hectares planted. This marks a notable shift from the 2020/21, 2021/22, and 2022/23 cycles, which were impacted by La Niña conditions.. La Niña led to severe drought conditions and a marked decline in rice dams, which only began to recover towards Nov-23, causing delays in sowing, particularly in Corrientes province.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh's Milled Rice Production and Consumption Outlook for 2024/25 Season

Bangladesh will produce 36.8 mmt of milled rice in the 2024/25 season, covering 11.5 million ha, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). The country's rice consumption is projected to reach 37.7 mmt. Since Aug-22, high inflation has diminished the purchasing power of Bangladeshi consumers',leading to a suspension in rice imports by both government and private traders since July 31. India's restrictions on white rice exports (excluding basmati) and elevated global prices have exacerbated the situation. USDA analysts expect rice consumption in Bangladesh to decline while wheat consumption will increase, as wholemeal flour provides a cheaper alternative.

India

Indian Authorities Urged to Remove Basmati Rice Export Floor Price

According to millers, Indian authorities must urgently reduce or eliminate the floor price for basmati rice exports to help farmers increase overseas sales of this premium variety and avoid an oversupply that could further depress farm incomes. India and Pakistan are the sole basmati rice producers, working to market this premium grade. India exports 4 to 5 mmt of basmati rice annually to markets including Iran, Iraq, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the United States (US), and Europe. In 2023, India established a minimum export price (MEP) of USD 1,200/mt for basmati rice, which was later reduced to USD 950/mt. In addition, India, the world's largest rice exporter, imposed restrictions on non-basmati rice exports to manage domestic prices.

Spain

Catalonia's Rice Harvest to Normalize in 2024 with 140 Million KG Expected

Catalonia's 2024 rice harvest will be stable, with a total yield of about 140 million kilograms (kg). Approximately 130 million kg of this will come from the Ebro Delta, with the remainder from the Alto and Baix Empordà regions. The Bomba variety, which started harvesting in les Terres de l'Ebre a couple of weeks ago, is progressing about seven days earlier than last year due to high temperatures and the pyricularia fungus, also known as rice blast fungus. This fungus has caused many spikes to fail to seed.

Vietnam

Vietnamese Rice Exports Surge 21.7% YoY; Indonesia to Import Additional 900 Thousand MT

According to the latest Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development data, rice exports in the first eight months of 2024 totaled nearly USD 3.85 billion, reflecting a 21.7% YoY increase. The export volume reached 6.16 mmt, up 5.9% YoY. The average rice export price was USD 542/mt during this period, marking an 11.5% YoY rise. Facing forecasts of lower output and delays in rice planting, Indonesia plans to import an additional 900 thousand mt of rice by year-end, mainly from Vietnam.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W36 2023 to W36 2024)

India

In W36, wholesale rice prices in India remained steady week-on-week (WoW) at USD 0.66/kg but reflected a 10% YoY increase from USD 0.60/kg. This rise is due to India's ongoing food inflation, which has stayed around 8% YoY since Nov-23. Supply-side issues, including adverse weather conditions affecting crop yields, have contributed to this inflation. Despite the early arrival of monsoon rains and predictions of above-normal rainfall, food inflation persists, heavily influencing the consumer price index. Since food accounts for nearly half of the inflation basket, elevated prices have pushed headline inflation above the central bank's 4% target, complicating efforts to lower interest rates.

Thailand

Wholesale prices for Thai 5% broken rice remained steady WoW at USD 0.57/kg in W36 but experienced a notable 10.94% YoY decline. Thailand's milled rice production is projected to increase to 20 mmt in the 2024/25 season, up from 19.7 mmt in 2023/24, driven by higher farm-gate prices and improved yields. Despite this production growth, Thailand's rice exports are expected to drop to 7.5 mmt in 2024/25, down from 8.2 mmt in 2023/24 and 8.7 mmt in 2022/23. This decline is attributed to the volatility of the Thai baht and intensified competition from other major exporters like Vietnam, Cambodia, and India.

Vietnam

In W36, wholesale prices for Vietnamese regular rice remained stable both WoW and month-on-month (MoM) but recorded a 1.64% YoY increase, reaching USD 0.62/kg compared to USD 0.61/kg in W36, 2023. The rising prices have made Vietnamese rice among the most expensive globally. However, Vietnam is on track to achieve record-high rice export volume and value, driven by increased demand from its traditional trading partners. Unlike price trends in Thailand and Pakistan, the elevated prices for Vietnamese rice are due to its high quality and unique varieties, which are unavailable from other major producers. With robust demand, Vietnamese rice exports are expected to exceed 8 mmt, generating over USD 5 billion, setting a new industry record.

United States

In W36, the wholesale price of US-milled white long rice in Arkansas remained stable at USD 0.80/kg, reflecting a 2.44% YoY decrease. According to the USDA, the harvest is progressing smoothly, with no significant weather disruptions or poor crop conditions reported. Over 25% of the Arkansas rice crop has been harvested as of W36, with 76% rated as good or excellent. The following critical phase will involve receiving early mill yield reports from the field, expected within the next two weeks, providing further insights into this year’s crop performance.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Enhance Import Strategies and Address Consumption Shifts in Bangladesh

In Bangladesh, the projected rice consumption exceeding production for the 2024/25 season presents a challenge for food security, especially with reduced imports. Authorities should enhance import strategies by negotiating alternative sources of rice imports beyond India, such as Vietnam and Thailand, to avoid domestic shortages. Additionally, promoting alternative grains like wheat could help balance the demand for rice. Educational campaigns encouraging dietary diversification and government subsidies for wheat flour could help offset rising rice prices, reducing pressure on rice supplies while meeting nutritional needs.

Adjust Export Policies and Promote Premium Varieties in India

India's rice sector should consider revising the MEP for basmati rice to stimulate exports and prevent an oversupply that could harm domestic farmers. By lowering the MEP and focusing on marketing India's basmati rice as a premium product in global markets, Indian exporters can strengthen their presence in high-demand regions such as the Middle East, Europe, and the US. Additionally, investment in modern milling technologies and organic certification for rice farms can enhance the product’s quality, ensuring competitive pricing and market expansion opportunities.

Strengthen Crop Protection and Stabilize Production in Catalonia

For Catalonia, the 2024 rice harvest, particularly of the Bomba variety, presents opportunities and challenges. Farmers should invest in crop protection measures to ensure long-term stability, particularly against the pyricularia fungus, which has affected yields. Introducing resistant seed varieties and integrated pest management practices could minimize future losses. Furthermore, promoting the region’s premium rice varieties in niche international markets, such as gourmet and specialty food sectors, could help stabilize prices and improve profitability despite potential yield fluctuations.

Sources: Tridge, Zol, UkrAgroConsult, Noticias Agropecuarias, Voh