1. Weekly News

Brazil

Brazil’s Soybean Exports Declined in Sep-24

Brazil's soybean exports generated USD 1.299 billion over ten business days in Sep-24, averaging USD 129.931 million daily. The country exported 3.015 million metric tons (mmt) during that period, with a daily average of 301.546 thousand metric tons (mt) and average price of USD 430.90/mt. There was a 21.3% year-on-year (YoY) decrease in average daily revenue and a 5.7% YoY reduction in volume, while the average price dropped by 16.5% YoY.

Paraguay

Paraguay Projects Soybean Production to Reach 11.2 MMT for the 2024/25 Campaign

According to the Sep-24 projections of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Paraguay is expected to produce 11.2 mmt of soybeans for the 2024/25 campaign, an increase from the estimated 10.7 mmt. Locally, projections suggest that production could reach 10 mmt if crop development and weather conditions remain favorable. However, potential limitations in water and temperature during different growth periods may impact yields, prompting recommendations for producers to make timely and informed decisions. Meanwhile, the USDA has maintained its forecast for Brazil's soybean harvest at 169 mmt and its export estimate at 105 mmt. The USDA continues to project a soybean production of 51 mmt for the next campaign for Argentina.

Ukraine

Ukraine's 2024 Soybean Crop Poised for Record Harvest

Ukraine is forecasted to harvest its largest-ever soybean crop in 2024, with production estimated between 5.9 and 6 mmt, marking a 9% YoY increase. This growth is due to a significant expansion in the sown area, which increased by 44% YoY to 2.66 million hectares (ha). However, crop quality remains uncertain due to heat and drought in Jul-24, which affected yield potential. Although the harvest is progressing faster than in 2023, recent rains have caused delays in certain regions. Farmers reportedly rush to sell new-crop soybeans due to fears of price declines.

United States

Soybean Shipments Rose to 401,287 MT in W38 But Cumulative Year Total Declines

The USDA’s W38 update reported an increase in United States (US) soybean shipments, totaling 401,287 mt, up from 365,003 mt the previous week. However, despite this weekly rise, the cumulative total for the commercial year stands at 674,581 mt, down from over 800,000 mt in the previous year.

US Soybean Harvest Progress Ahead of Five-Year Average

As of September 22, the US soybean harvest was 6% complete, 3% ahead of the five-year averages, according to the USDA's weekly crop progress report. The report noted that 64% of the soybean crop were good to excellent, with a slight decline of 1% week-on-week (WoW), which aligned with analyst forecasts. Importantly, these ratings represent the highest for this time of year since 2018, reinforcing expectations for a substantial harvest. The USDA has projected record-high yields for soybeans, solidifying the US' position as the world's largest exporter and the second-largest supplier of soybeans after Brazil.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Soybean Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Soybean Pricing Important Exporters (W38 2023 to W38 2024)

Brazil

In W38, Brazilian soybean prices remained steady at USD 0.41 per kilogram (kg), showing no change WoW. However, prices rose by 5.13% month-on-month (MoM) due to concerns that the 2024/25 soybean harvest in Mato Grosso might face below-average rainfall, potentially delaying early sowing. Despite this monthly increase, the overall price trend reflects expectations of a record soybean harvest of 165mmt for the upcoming season, with exports projected to reach 102 mmt, supported by improved productivity of 3.55 mt/ha and an expanded planted area. The market's outlook hinges on favorable weather conditions to achieve the anticipated production boost.

United States

US soybean prices held steady at USD 0.45/kg WoW but fell by 27.42% YoY. This price stability is due to strong demand, with the USDA reporting soybean export sales of 2.615 mmt for the week ending August 22, exceeding trade expectations of 1.5 to 2.5 mmt. Initially, concerns about hot and dry weather in the Midwest raised uncertainties regarding crop yields. However, forecasts of milder conditions have alleviated these worries. Recent rainfall has improved crop prospects by easing drought conditions, yet doubts remain whether the soybean crop will achieve its full potential. The significant YoY price decline is mainly due to the USDA's projections of record-high yields, with the US soybean harvest reported to be 6% complete in W38, 3% ahead of the five-year averages, according to the USDA's weekly crop progress report.

Argentina

Argentina's soybean prices rose by 2.44% WoW and 5% MoM, reaching USD 0.42/kg in W38. This recent increase is due to higher demand and a notable surge in Argentine soybean exports, which rose by 67% YoY to USD 8.98 billion in the first half of the season. Despite an 8.70% YoY decline in overall prices, the export value increased by 39%. Looking ahead, Argentina is poised for its most substantial expansion in soybean plantings in a decade for the 2024/25 planting season, potentially marking the most significant annual increase since 2012. This expansion could enhance global supplies and apply downward pressure on already low prices.

Uruguay

Uruguayan soybean prices remained stable at USD 0.41/kg, showing no change WoW or MoM. The 2023/24 soybean harvest concluded with an estimated production of 3 mmt, but excessive rainfall during spring and summer hindered yields, falling short of earlier high projections. This prevented a record harvest and disappointed farmers as they sought to recover from previous losses. Current soybean prices are at their lowest levels since 2020, underscoring the persistent challenges facing Uruguay's agricultural sector.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Enhance Export Opportunities and Manage Production Constraints

Brazil and Paraguay should strengthen trade relationships with key importing countries, particularly in Asia and Europe, to accommodate anticipated increases in soybean production. Establishing strategic partnerships can facilitate smoother trade negotiations, leading to higher export volumes. Additionally, investing in logistics infrastructure, such as enhancing port facilities and improving transportation networks, will ensure the efficient movement of goods. Addressing production challenges, including adverse weather and pest outbreaks, is essential. Implementing precision agriculture techniques can help mitigate risks associated with climate variability by optimizing farming practices through data analytics. Encouraging collaboration between agricultural producers, government agencies, and research institutions will foster innovation and resilience in the supply chain.

Address Price Trends and Export Market Dynamics

Ukraine's soybean producers should adopt resilient farming techniques, including crop diversification and soil health management, to counteract adverse weather conditions and price volatility. Enhancing marketing strategies by leveraging digital platforms can help access new markets, particularly in regions with growing demand, such as Southeast Asia. Investment in research and development for high-yield and drought-resistant soybean varieties will support long-term competitiveness, positioning Ukraine as a reliable supplier in the global market. Additionally, monitoring global price trends and adjusting production strategies will enable farmers to maximize profitability amidst fluctuating market conditions.

Adapt to Market Conditions and Optimize Supply Chain Management

Argentina must enhance its supply chain management by improving logistics and ensuring timely delivery of soybeans as planting intentions rise for the upcoming season. This includes investing in transportation infrastructure, such as road and port improvements, to facilitate quicker shipping times. Implementing a robust digital tracking system will enable real-time monitoring of supply chain efficiency, allowing producers and exporters to respond promptly to market demands and fluctuations. Targeting export strategies towards emerging markets, particularly in Asia, will be crucial for growth. Collaborating with local agricultural cooperatives can streamline operations and strengthen buyer relationships, improving market access and profitability.

Sources: CanalRural, Agrobusiness, NoticiasAgricolas, Agrobusiness, Elagro, Hellenic Shipping News