1. Weekly News

Brazil

Brazil's Tomato Prices Drop Sharply Due to Increased Supply

Wholesale tomato prices in São Paulo and Belo Horizonte, Brazil, experienced significant declines in W43. According to the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (CEPEA), the average price for a box of 3A salad tomatoes in São Paulo fell to USD 10.71, marking a 21.7% week-on-week (WoW) drop. In Belo Horizonte, the decrease was sharper, with prices down 31.5% WoW to USD 7.77 per box. CEPEA researchers attribute this decline to unseasonably high temperatures, which sped up tomato ripening and increased supply from key producing regions such as Sumaré (SP), Paty do Alferes (RJ), and Araguari (MG). Belo Horizonte’s market saw additional supply boosts from Carmópolis de Minas (MG) and Iapu (MG), intensifying the inflow of tomatoes and further driving down prices.

Paraguay

Paraguay Launched First Tomato Exports to Argentina

Paraguayan vegetable producers recently achieved a significant milestone by exporting tomatoes to Argentina for the first time, marking a significant development in their agricultural trade. Two shipments, each containing 30 metric tons (mt), were sent to Córdoba province. The Minister of Agriculture and Livestock noted that a phytosanitary permit from Paraguayan health authorities facilitated the export. Negotiations are also underway to expand exports to Mendoza province. The initial shipment included produce from six farmers in the Caaguazú department.

South Korea

South Korea Launches Initiative to Combat Tomato Hornworm Threat

The South Korean Rural Development Administration (RDA) announced on October 22 that it will enhance management and provide guidance to prevent the spread of the tomato hornworm as the fall cropping season for greenhouse tomatoes begins. The RDA will conduct a three-week educational program for tomato farms nationwide in collaboration with local agricultural research institutes and technology centers. This initiative aims to inform farmers about tomato hornworms' characteristics and damage patterns, strategies for preventing adult influx, and management techniques for detected pests, enabling quick responses on the farm. Additionally, the RDA will conduct a nationwide survey until Nov-24 to assess the distribution and density of tomato hornworms, providing on-site guidance and immediate control measures if pests are found. A follow-up survey will be conducted from Dec-24 to Feb-25 to determine if tomato hornworms hibernate domestically.

South Korean Tomato Prices Hold Steady Despite Production Challenges

In W42, South Korean tomato prices saw a slight decline but remained strong, with the average price at Garak Market in Seoul around USD 23.56 per 5 kg box. This represents a 4.5% decrease from Oct-23's average of USD 24.67/5k but is 17.9% higher than the average for the month, which stood at USD 19.96/5kg. Poor crop yields have primarily driven the price increase due to heat waves. As production transitions from Gangwon to Jeonbuk, Jeonnam, and Gyeongnam in mid to late Oct-24, temporary gaps in shipments are expected, a situation that has been worsened this year by the adverse growth conditions resulting from Sept-24's heat wave.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Tomato Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Tomato Pricing Important Exporters (W43 2023 to W43 2024)

Mexico

In W43, Mexico's wholesale tomato prices rose to USD 2.46/kg, up 4.24% WoW and reflecting substantial increases of 119.64% month-on-month (MoM) and 35.91% year-on-year (YoY). The price surge is mainly due to the completion of production cycles in key growing regions, including Sonora and Sinaloa. However, Mexico's tomato production is forecasted to increase from 3.22 million metric tons (mmt) in 2023 to 3.30 mmt in 2024, which is expected to bring market stabilization and a potential price decline. While some producers invest in protected cultivation methods to mitigate weather-related impacts, a large portion of tomato production still relies on open-field farming, making it more vulnerable to adverse weather and often resulting in lower yields.

Morocco

In W43, Moroccan tomato prices rose by 15.15% WoW and 8.57% MoM, reaching USD 0.38/kg. This increase is due to strong export demand for Moroccan tomatoes. The final export volume in 2024 will depend heavily on autumn weather conditions and the lingering effects of summer heatwaves, which have impacted production. Around half of Morocco's tomato exports went to France, the remainder mainly to other European Union (EU) countries, the United Kingdom (UK), and Sub-Saharan Africa. Germany notably increased its imports, receiving 25 thousand mt in the first seven months of this year compared to 21 thousand mt for the previous year. Despite this export growth, Agadir growers anticipate a reduction in overall tomato volume for 2024 due to adverse weather in key areas like Mohammedia, El Jadida, Oualidia, and Agadir.

Spain

In W43, Spain's wholesale tomato prices fell by 3.33% WoW and 15.53% MoM, reaching USD 0.87/kg from USD 0.90/kg. Spanish growers delayed planting this year, while Moroccan producers entered the market earlier, intensifying competition. Concerns about the Tomato Brown Rugose Fruit Virus (ToBRFV) have influenced planting decisions, with growers opting for more virus-resistant varieties to mitigate crop losses. Spanish tomato acreage has also decreased, partly due to profitability issues driven by last year’s low prices and rising labor costs.

Türkiye

In W43, Türkiye's wholesale tomato prices surged 24.24% MoM and 38.20% YoY, reaching USD 1.23/kg. The increase is due to ongoing drought and rising costs, especially for diesel and transportation, which have significantly outpaced tomato price growth. This financial pressure has led to producer dissatisfaction and protests in key agricultural areas. Moreover, European demand for Turkish vine tomatoes is rising as retailers look to Türkiye, where growing conditions have remained relatively stable compared to extreme weather and water shortages in Spain and Morocco. This shift is boosting demand for Turkish tomatoes in the European market.

France

In W43, France's wholesale tomato prices experienced a slight decrease of 5.09% WoW, reaching USD 2.05/kg, down from USD 2.16/kg. This decline is mainly due to an increase in production supply. However, prices are still 4.59% higher YoY due to a significant shortage of round tomatoes compared to 2023, influenced by seasonal factors, particularly since mid-September. Although imports from Spain and Morocco faced initial delays, they are now gradually entering the French market. Despite moderate demand, prices remain high, reflecting a production shortfall that is more substantial than last year.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Increase Value-Added Processing for Türkiye’s Tomato Exports

Türkiye should build processing facilities near production centers that would reduce post-harvest waste, boost farmers’ earnings, and help stabilize income during periods of high yield and low prices. With these products, Türkiye could tap into the European demand for convenient, ready-to-use food items, enhancing its market share. Diversifying its exports with value-added products would shield Türkiye’s tomato sector from fresh market price swings and support sustainable growth in the long term.

Invest in Pest Management Education and Infrastructure

South Korea should invest in tech-based pest monitoring systems to tackle the tomato hornworm. These systems would allow for precise tracking and forecasted outbreaks while reducing pesticide reliance. Developing eco-friendly control methods with research institutions and integrating pest education programs would also ensure farmers are well-prepared to manage infestations proactively. This multi-layered approach would strengthen South Korea’s tomato industry resilience and contribute to national food security.

Expand Export Partnerships and Market Access

With Paraguay’s recent success in exporting tomatoes to Argentina, the country can expand its agricultural exports to other regional markets, like Brazil and Bolivia, where demand is high. Establishing trade relationships with these countries would diversify export destinations, offering more excellent economic stability and reducing risks associated with relying on a single market. Partnering with trade organizations can help Paraguayan producers meet necessary standards and streamline export processes. Moreover, focusing on sustainable farming practices, like organic methods, could boost appeal, as many Latin American consumers are shifting towards healthier, eco-friendly options. Expanding these partnerships would enhance Paraguay's resilience and foothold in the South American market.

Sources: Agrotimes, Bichos de campo, Nongmin