In W43 in the maize (corn) landscape, the International Grains Council (IGC) revised downward its global corn production forecast for 2023/24 to 1.219 billion metric tons (mt), which is 3 million metric tons (mmt) lower than the previous estimate. This adjustment is primarily due to reduced corn production expectations in the United States (US) and Brazil. The new projections indicate that US corn production will reach 382.7 mmt, down from the previous expectation of 384.4 mmt, while Brazilian corn production is now forecast to be 127.2 mmt, lower than the earlier estimate of 130.2 mmt. However, China's corn production forecast has been increased to 280.6 mmt, surpassing the previous forecast of 277.4 mmt.
According to data from the European Commission, during the 2023/24 agricultural season, European Union (EU) corn imports decreased by 40% compared to the previous season, to 5.067 mmt. Brazil delivered 2.25 mmt, Ukraine 2.21 mmt, and Canada only 220 thousand mt. Spain imported the most corn among EU member states at 2.10 mmt, followed by the Netherlands with 675 thousand mt and Italy with 617 thousand mt.
In the 2023/24 harvest, a reduction in the corn-planted area in Mato Grosso, Brazil, is expected to impact the country's overall corn projection. The total corn area for Brazil is projected to be 21.18 million hectares (ha), a decrease of 4.82% year-on-year (YoY), with Mato Grosso, the largest national producer, experiencing a 4.92% YoY decline. Other significant corn-producing states like Paraná and Mato Grosso Sul also predict decreases of 7.07% and 3.65%, contributing to the national contraction.
In the first three weeks of Oct-23, Brazil exported 5.89 mmt of unground corn, accounting for 86.85% of the total exported in Oct-22. The daily average of shipments in the initial 14 working days increased by 17.9% year-on-year (YoY) to 420,957 mt. Meanwhile, corn planting in Rio Grande do Sul (RS) has reached 70% of the projected area, which is 817,521 ha. Most crops are in the germination and vegetative development stage (99%), with only 1% in the reproductive period. The period was characterized by increased sunlight, promoting rapid plant growth.
As of October 22, the US had harvested 59% of its corn crop, which is on par with the previous year and slightly ahead of the five-year average of 54%, according to the National Agricultural Statistical Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Moreover, the USDA forecasts a significant increase in the corn harvest for the 2023/24 season, projecting it to reach 382.7 mmt, a 10% increase from the previous season and a 6% increase from the five-year average.
The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) has raised the Russian corn harvest forecast for the 2023/24 season to 17 mmt, exceeding the previous estimate of 16 mmt made in early Oct-23. This new projection would set a record, surpassing the previous year's record of 15.8 mmt. The increase is attributed to exceptional corn yields in the central regions of Russia, with yields exceeding 9.5 mt/ha in bunker weight. Additionally, other corn-producing regions are also experiencing high yields. As a result of this positive outlook, the export potential for corn in the 2023/24 agricultural year has been raised from 6 mmt to 6.5 mmt.