W46 Blueberry Update: El Niño Hit Blueberry Production Globally

In W46 in the blueberry landscape, the blueberry demand constantly changes in the global market. The Netherlands is struggling with a persistent shortage, mainly from Peru and South Africa, which has led to consistently high prices and difficulties for suppliers. In Germany, importers are experiencing a significant drop in volume, resulting in higher prices and a shift towards smaller packages. The French market is witnessing a mix of Peruvian and Portuguese blueberries, and they expect a larger supply from Argentina and Morocco in December. In Italy, the market is dominated by imports from the southern hemisphere, with Emilia-Romagna boasting robust blueberry yields. South African blueberry producers are benefiting from the high demand, while North America is waiting for an increase in supply after disruptions caused by El Niño.

Blueberry Committee of Chile Revises Fresh Blueberry Export Estimate for the 2023-2024 Season

The Blueberry Fruit Committee of Chile (BFCC) revised the fresh blueberry export estimates for the 2023/24 season to 76,500 metric tons (mt). The new figure reflects a 7% drop compared to the first estimate in Oct-22 and a 13% decrease compared to the export volume in the 2022/23 season. This drop is reported due to the negative effect caused by the rains in early November and other associated weather events, such as frost and hail. The weekly export volume is expected to exceed 5,000 metric tons (mt) in W51, similar to the average levels. However, the volume is predicted to peak during W51 2023 to W3 2024, with an estimated weekly export of over 8,000 mt.

As of Nov-23, Chile’s fresh blueberry exports have experienced an 18% year-on-year (YoY) increase, benefiting from the introduction new varieties and the exclusion of non-recommended varieties. During W46, air shipments dominated the export market. However, maritime shipments will recover gradually as the volume of fruit exports increases.

El Niño will hit Peru's main blueberry-producing regions until May-24

Peruvian blueberry harvest season faces threats from heavy rainfall forecasts in the major producing bases. Authorities projected that warm air temperature conditions will persist between Nov-23 and Feb-24, triggering heavy rains on the north coast, central coast, and northern highlands. Among the regions most vulnerable to this threat are Tumbes, Piura, La Libertad, Ancash, Lambayeque, Cajamarca, Huánuco in the east-central part, San Martín in the high jungle, Amazonas, Ica in south-central Peru, and Loreto in the northern Amazon. These regions account for almost 95% of blueberry crops and virtually all export production. As a response, Agrarian Development and Irrigation of Peru stated that the government is committed to completing prevention work before the rain session begins.

South African blueberries enter a rising market

In W44, blueberry exports in South Africa have experienced a significant 32.24% YoY decrease, with an export volume of 9,622 mt. This decline is attributed to the lower availability of exportable fruit in the north of the country as a result of heavy rainfalls. The harvest has already been completed in the northern part of the country, while the Western Cape has just begun, albeit with a slight delay due to the unpleasant weather. Even though the fruit size in the Western Cape is slightly smaller, there is still a significant yield, which may alleviate current market shortages. Given the current supply shortage, the price will not likely fall in the global market.