1. Weekly News

Asia

Vietnam Surpasses 8 MMT of Rice Exports in 2024 Amid Rising Thai Rice Prices

According to customs data, Vietnam exported 293,484 metric tons (mt) of rice in the first half of Nov-24, exporting a total of 8.05 million metric tons (mmt) worth USD 5.05 billion in 2024. In Thailand, export activity remains strong, with consistent demand from key buyers such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and other Asian countries. Thailand's rice exports surged by 20% year-on-year (YoY) in the Jan-24 to Oct-24 period compared to the same period in 2023, reflecting strong export momentum.

Argentina

Argentina Expands Rice Planting Area for 2024/25 Campaign

Argentina's rice planting for the 2024/25 campaign is complete, with a national area increase of 8.4% YoY, representing an expansion of 17,050 hectares (ha). This marks the largest cultivated area since the 2014/15 cycle. According to the Corrientes Rice Growers Association and the Grain Exchanges, the current price of long fine paddy rice stands at USD 320/mt despite a recent decline in rice prices. This price allows for a positive gross margin, with the indifference yield for the long acceptable commercial type (covering 81% of the total area in the 2023/24 cycle) estimated between 7 to 7.5 mt/ha, achievable with the right technology. Furthermore, the El Niño phenomenon, which resulted in rice field losses in Corrientes province during the summer of 2024, will no longer affect the current growing season. Climate models predict a neutral equatorial Pacific scenario, benefiting the sector.

Bangladesh

Bangladesh Approves Import of 50 Thousand MT of Rice from India to Strengthen Food Stocks

Bangladesh's interim government approved the import of an additional 50 thousand mt of rice from India to bolster its food stocks for USD 471.6/mt. As of November 20, Bangladesh's food grain stock stood at 1.24 mmt, including 808 thousand mt of rice. This import aims to support ongoing food distribution programs amid high inflation. For the 2024/25 fiscal year, Bangladesh plans to import 500 thousand mt of rice through government deals and open tenders, potentially increasing market prices. The government also plans to distribute 2.052 mmt of food grains, including 800 thousand mt sourced locally during the Aman season and more during the Boro season next year.

Indonesia

Indonesia Aims for Rice Self-Sufficiency by 2025

Indonesia's Minister of Agriculture has announced a plan to achieve rice self-sufficiency by 2025, targeting annual production of 32 mmt. This goal supports the President's Asta Cita policy. According to the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the 2024 rice harvest area is estimated at 10.05 million ha, a decline of 167.25 thousand ha or 1.64% compared to 2023's 10.21 million ha. Despite the reduced harvest area, the government remains committed to boosting productivity to meet its self-sufficiency target.

Russia

Primorsky Krai Boosts Rice Production by 74% YoY in 2024

Russia’s Primorsky Krai experienced a substantial rise in rice production, harvesting 47 thousand mt in 2024, a 20 thousand mt increase from the previous year. The Khorolsky municipal district contributed the largest share of the harvest. This surge aligns with the government's strategy to enhance rice production to supply both local markets and central regions of Russia. While rice remains the third most cultivated crop in the area, behind soybeans and corn, plans to expand production further are underway. These efforts include promoting rice through retail channels and exploring export opportunities, underscoring the region’s commitment to strengthening its rice sector.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Rice Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Rice Pricing Important Exporters (W48 2023 to W48 2024)

Thailand

In W48, wholesale prices for Thai rice remained steady week-on-week (WoW) but increased by 2.08% month-on-month (MoM), reaching USD 0.49 per kilogram (kg). Global supply constraints and strong import demand from the Philippines, Indonesia, and other Asian countries drove the price rise. Higher production costs, including elevated fertilizer, fuel, and labor prices, have also added to price pressures. However, the seasonal increase in supply and currency fluctuations helped moderate these upward pressures. On a YoY basis, prices declined by 10.91%, mainly due to the arrival of the 2024/25 marketing year (MY) paddy rice crop, which increased supply and exerted downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the depreciation of the Thai baht has lowered prices in US dollar terms, enhancing the competitiveness of Thai rice in global markets.

Vietnam

In W48, Vietnamese regular rice prices increased by 3.23% WoW and 6.67% MoM to USD 0.624/kg, rebounding after lagging behind Thailand, Pakistan, and Myanmar prices. This surge is due to unexpected demand increases from key import partners, particularly the Philippines and Indonesia. The Philippines recently raised its rice import target from 4.2 mmt to 4.7 mmt. At the same time, Indonesia is expected to import up to 4.3 mmt, up from the initially planned 3.6 mmt, due to a 9.5% YoY decline in domestic rice production from Jan-24 to Aug-24. These developments and vigorous seasonal import activity have propelled Vietnamese rice prices to their highest levels globally, underscoring the significant role of heightened demand in key markets.

United States

In W48, the wholesale price of milled white long rice in Arkansas, US, stood at USD 0.78/kg, reflecting a 1.27% YoY decrease. This decline is due to favorable harvest conditions, a strong domestic supply, and high yield expectations. Arkansas' rice harvest has progressed smoothly, with robust supply levels and high-quality ratings contributing to the mild price drop. The absence of significant weather disruptions has ensured ample market availability, easing price pressures. Moreover, the anticipation of strong early mill yields has further stabilized prices, supporting a downward trend.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Enhance Value Chain Efficiency to Reduce Costs and Boost Competitiveness

To counter rising production costs, including higher fertilizers, fuel, and labor prices, rice producers in key exporting countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, and the US should focus on streamlining their value chains. Investing in mechanization, such as automated planting and harvesting equipment, can significantly reduce labor costs while improving operational efficiency. Moreover, digital logistics platforms that offer real-time tracking and inventory management can minimize transportation delays and reduce spoilage, ensuring timely delivery to international markets. Collaborating with private logistics firms to optimize supply chain routes and employing blockchain technology for traceability can also improve transparency and build buyer confidence. Furthermore, focusing on value-added products such as organic, fortified, or ready-to-cook rice can command higher prices in niche markets, offsetting increased production costs. This approach enhances profit margins while meeting evolving consumer demands for premium, high-quality rice products.

Increase Investments in Climate-Resilient Agriculture Technologies

Given the increasing impact of climate variability on global rice production, investing in advanced agricultural technologies is essential for sustaining yields and improving resilience. Argentinian and Indonesian farmers should adopt drought-tolerant and flood-resistant rice varieties to mitigate the effects of extreme weather conditions. Implementing precision agriculture technologies such as satellite-based monitoring, soil moisture sensors, and predictive analytics can optimize resource usage and enhance productivity. Private sector collaborations with agritech companies can provide access to these innovations, while cooperative farming models can help smallholders share costs and benefits. Improving irrigation efficiency through micro-irrigation systems or water harvesting techniques can reduce water stress and enhance output during dry spells. Producers can maintain stable yields, reduce input costs, and secure a competitive edge in the global market by adopting these technologies.

Expand Diversified Export Strategies to Capture Growing Demand

With rising demand from key buyers, Thai exporters should prioritize diversifying their export destinations to enhance market resilience. Beyond traditional Asian markets, there are growing opportunities in West Africa, the Middle East, and South America, where rice consumption is increasing due to population growth and dietary shifts. Exporters can achieve diversification by fostering new trade partnerships through private sector engagement, attending international trade fairs, and developing region-specific marketing strategies. Offering flexible payment terms, customized rice varieties tailored to local preferences, and reliable logistics solutions can further strengthen these relationships. Diversifying markets reduces dependency on a few large buyers, mitigating risks related to price volatility and supply chain disruptions. Expanding their customer base allows exporters to navigate market fluctuations better and enhance long-term revenue stability.

Sources: Voh, Zol, Wartaekonomi, UkrAgroConsult, Martinsteeman