Weekly Product Updates

W49 Pork Update: Mexican Pork Import Halt, Russian Market Penetration in China and Record US Pork Exports

Frozen Pork Ham & Shoulder
Mexico
Published Dec 14, 2023
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Global Meat Prices Experience 2% YoY Decline

During Nov-23, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Meat Price Index averaged 111.8 points, representing a marginal decline of 0.4% month-on-month (MoM). This decrease is due to minor drops in poultry, pig, and bovine meat prices. The current index value, at 2.8 points, indicates a 2% lower year-over-year (YoY). The reduction in international poultry meat prices results from increased supplies, primarily from Brazil, despite challenges posed by avian influenza outbreaks globally. Pig meat prices declined due to sluggish import demand in Asian markets and abundant exportable availability in certain exporting countries, in contrast to a surge in internal sales in Europe ahead of the winter holidays. Ample supplies from Brazil and Oceania exerted downward pressure on global bovine meat export prices. Conversely, bovine meat prices experienced a slight increase, primarily influenced by currency movements.

Russian Pork Industry Eyes 10% Market Share in China Following Export Restrictions Removal

The recent removal of restrictions on exporting Russian pork to China has set in motion a series of certification procedures, an imperative step for enabling exports. To gain access to the Chinese market, both parties must collaborate on formulating a bilateral veterinary certificate. This intricate process is currently underway, with Rosselkhoznadzor taking proactive measures to facilitate trade. Optimistic about the prospect of penetrating the Chinese market, Russian pig farmers anticipate heightened competition compared to other international meat markets. As part of the certification process, Chinese delegations are presently scrutinizing pig-breeding enterprises in regions where no African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks have been recorded in the past year.

Russian pork exports to China are poised to capture approximately 10% of the market share, contingent on successful certification and adherence to Chinese regulations. Beyond competitive considerations, the significance of this export route lies in its potential to prevent pork overproduction in Russia. This move not only opens market opportunities for individual enterprises but also contributes to the overall health and sustainability of the Russian pork industry. Having rebounded in pork production after a decline from 2019 to 2020, China is anticipated to import 2.5 to 3 million metric tons (mmt) of pork products annually. While acknowledging increased competition in China compared to the Vietnamese market, where Russia has enjoyed success, Russian exporters express readiness to navigate challenges and compete for market share in China on a level playing field.

Mexico Suspends Brazilian Pork Imports Amid Protests, Singapore Elevates Brazil's Meat Export Status

Mexico has temporarily halted pork imports from Brazil amid local protests regarding the procedures used to open the market to Brazilian pork. The Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA) expressed regret over the decision, highlighting the negative impact on pork supply to the Mexican population during an inflationary crisis. Mexico, one of the world's top three pork importers, fulfills 48% of its requirements, with 90% coming from a single supplier. Brazil, recently approved with seven supplier units for export, presented an alternative source for Mexican imports, especially for the manufacturing industry. The Mexican market officially opened recently, and 23 thousand mt had been exported by Oct-23, making Mexico the 11th destination for Brazilian pork exports.

The Brazilian government welcomed the announcement by the Singapore health control agency, indicating that Brazil has been upgraded to the pre-listing category for exporting beef, pork, lamb, and chicken, along with their processed products. The approval of the pre-listing process designates the Ministry of Agriculture (Mapa) as responsible for qualifying slaughterhouses eligible to export to Singapore. In 2022, Brazil exported approximately USD 600 million worth of meat and meat products to Singapore. This development follows the recent market openings for bovine gelatin, collagen, frozen crustaceans, bivalve mollusks, and processed beef and pork, contributing to an anticipated increase in trade between the two countries.

US Pork Exports Reach New Heights, Mexico Breaks Records in Oct-23

The United States (US) pork exports demonstrated another robust performance in Oct-23, propelled by record-high shipments to Mexico and widespread growth in other regions, as indicated by data released by the USDA and compiled by the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Totaling 245.3 thousand metric tons (mt) for Oct-23, pork exports increased by 3% year-over-year (YoY), marking the largest volume since June. The export value amounted to USD 688.2 million, showing a 2% YoY decrease. Over the initial 10 months of 2023, pork exports grew by 9% YoY, reaching 2.38 million mt, with a 6% YoY increase in value to USD 6.66 billion.

In Oct-23, US pork exports to Mexico reached a record 100.9 thousand mt, a 19% YoY increase, with a value of USD 221.1 million, an increase of 9% YoY. Jan-23 to Oct-23 shipments to Mexico rose 13% to 895.2 thousand mt, valued at USD 1.9 billion, a 16% YoY increase. Pork muscle cut exports to Mexico set a record in Oct-23, nearly 87 thousand mt, accounting for 10.7% of US production, and cumulatively, they increased by 11% YoY through Oct-23 to 763.2 thousand mt. Variety meat exports surged 29% YoY to 132 thousand mt, valued at USD 248.6 million (38% YoY increase). Oct-23 pork exports to Colombia totaled 10.9 thousand mt, a 35% YoY increase, with a value of USD 30.4 million, indicating a 42% YoY increase. Jan-23 to Oct-23 exports to Colombia decreased 11% YoY to 76.4 thousand mt, with export value increased 1% YoY to USD 207.9 million. Pork exports to Central America in Oct-23 increased by 35% YoY in volume (13.7 thousand mt) and 37% YoY in value (USD 42.2 million). Jan-23 to Oct-23 exports to the region increased 12% YoY to 102.8 thousand mt, with the value increased by 18% YoY to USD 301 million.

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