W5 Oat Update: UK Oat Prices Surge to 19-Month High Amid Supply Shortages and Rising Demand, and Russian Grain Export Oversight Spikes 250% YoY, Potentially Impacting Global Cereal Prices

UK Ex-Farm Milling Oat Prices Surge to 19-Month High

On Jan-24, the average ex-farm milling oat price in the United Kingdom (UK) hit a 19-month peak, soaring by 5.8% compared to Dec-23 and by 14.4% year-on-year (YoY), reaching USD 316.84/mt (GBP 252.2/mt). This upswing is due to a reduction in availability coupled with heightened demand. Projections for the 2023/24 season indicate a 16% YoY decrease in oat availability, estimated at 995 thousand tons, while human and industrial consumption is anticipated to increase by 3% to 507 thousand tons. Furthermore, the premium of milling oats over feed oats surged to a 10-year pinnacle in Jan-24, reaching USD 96.37/mt (GBP 76.7/mt). These factors are poised to sustain elevated prices throughout the season.

Russian Authorities Intensify Monitoring of Grain Exports, Including Oats, in 2024

In Russia, the Rosselkhoznadzor Office for the Irkutsk Region and the Republic of Buryatia significantly increased its control over grain exports, including oats, at the beginning of 2024. A total of 604.6 tons of grain and processed products underwent export monitoring, reflecting a 250% increase YoY. Among the exported products, 301 tons of food oats were sent mainly to Mongolia. State inspectors and specialists conducted thorough phytosanitary inspections for each batch at the Baikal branch of the Federal State Budgetary Institution (VNIIKR), ensuring compliance with international phytosanitary requirements and releasing the products free from quarantine pests.

Moreover, Russia has emerged as a major player in the global grain market in recent years, boasting significant exports of various grains, including barley, corn, rye, and oats, particularly wheat. The country's dominance, controlling approximately 20% of the world market, exerts considerable influence on global prices, especially amid ongoing conflicts with Ukraine, another major exporter. Russia's projected increase in wheat cultivation by 2024 may exacerbate the current depressed cereal prices.