1. Weekly News

Europe

EU Tomato Market to Shift Towards Smaller Varieties

By 2035, the European Union (EU) is expected to experience a decline in winter production of fresh tomatoes, driven by a shift toward small-fruited varieties, particularly snack tomatoes. Despite this production decline, consumption is forecasted to remain stable, with average annual tomato consumption reaching 15.2 kilograms (kg) per person. This trend reflects growing demand for smaller tomato varieties, which are becoming increasingly popular for snacking.

The EU's production and consumption of processed tomatoes will increase due to rising demand for processed food products. Processed tomato consumption is expected to grow by 1.2% year-on-year (YoY), reaching 23 kg per person per year by 2035. Tomato imports into the EU are forecasted to continue increasing, growing at 0.6% YoY, with Morocco remaining the leading supplier. However, exports are expected to decline slightly, with a predicted decrease of 0.2% YoY. These trends highlight production and trade dynamics shifts within the EU tomato market over the next decade.

Turkmenistan

Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan Faced Declining Greenhouse Tomato Sales

Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are facing significant challenges in selling greenhouse vegetables, particularly greenhouse tomatoes, due to a sharp decline in the purchasing power of Russian buyers. In Turkmenistan, greenhouse growers struggle to sell their tomatoes even for USD 1/kg. The primary issue is a sharp drop in demand from the Russian market, which puts constant pressure on prices. Similarly, the price of greenhouse tomatoes in Uzbekistan is 32% YoY lower, making it one of the weakest in the last five years. In W51, red round greenhouse tomato prices in small wholesale markets stood at USD 1.17/kg, with larger wholesale export prices often aligning with Turkmenistan's prices.

Ukraine

Ukraine Greenhouse Tomato Prices Surged on Strong Holiday Demand

As the New Year holidays approach, there has been a noticeable increase in demand for greenhouse tomatoes in the Ukrainian market, driving a significant price rise. Türkiye is the primary source of imported tomatoes, dominating the domestic supply. Since the beginning of W51, prices for imported tomatoes have surged by an average of 20% week-on-week (WoW), with current prices ranging from USD 1.91 to 2.38/kg, depending on quality, batch size, and variety. Supply of tomatoes was insufficient this week as local production has wound down for the season, leaving few tomatoes available from domestic factories. This shortage, combined with strong demand, meant that the supply of imported products could not fully meet market needs, allowing sellers to increase prices.

Vietnam

Vietnam Faced Tomato Crop Damage from South American Leaf Borer Spread

The South American tomato leaf borer, scientifically known as Phthorimaea absoluta, was first recorded damaging tomatoes in Vietnam in Jul-19 in Mộc Châu and Mai Sơn (Sơn La). This pest has since spread to other regions, including Lâm Đồng and Thái Bình provinces. The South American tomato leaf borer can destroy up to 80 to 100% of crops if effective management measures are not in place. In Sơn La province, which has 120 hectares (ha) of tomato cultivation, the Plant Protection Institute research in 2023 showed high infestation rates. The infection rate was particularly severe in Mai Sơn district (50.7%) and Mộc Châu district (48.5%). Moreover, the Rita tomato variety was more susceptible to infestation by the South American tomato leaf borer than other tomato varieties.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Tomato Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Tomato Pricing Important Exporters (W51 2023 to W51 2024)

Mexico

Mexico's tomato prices increased significantly by 27.15% WoW to USD 2.81/kg in W51 from USD 2.21/kg in W50. This increase is mainly due to reduced supply due to cold weather conditions in key producing regions such as Sinaloa and Baja California. These cold spells occurred in mid-Dec-24, delaying harvests and lowering production volumes. The supply constraints were aggravated by strong export demand from the United States (US), where seasonal shortages have increased reliance on Mexican tomatoes. Weather-related supply disruptions and heightened export demand significantly tightened availability in Mexico's domestic market, contributing to the sharp price rise.

Morocco

In W51, Morocco's tomato prices saw a sharp increase of 27.27% WoW to USD 0.14/kg from USD 0.11/kg in W50. The primary reason was a significant reduction in supply caused by cold weather conditions in key production areas such as Souss-Massa and Agadir, where temperatures dropped below seasonal averages in mid-Dec-24. These colder temperatures disrupted tomato ripening and delayed harvesting schedules, creating supply shortages in local and export markets. Moreover, strong export demand from EU countries, particularly France and Spain, aggravated the supply constraints. These countries rely on Moroccan tomato imports during winter to offset their seasonal production deficits. Rising transportation costs and logistical challenges due to holiday-season congestion further limited the efficient distribution of tomatoes, amplifying price pressures in the domestic market.

Türkiye

Türkiye's tomato prices remained unchanged WoW at USD 1.26/kg but reflected a 17.65% MoM decline. The ongoing harvest in the Ahlat district is in full swing, with local tomatoes steadily making their way to the market. Driven by the hard work of local producers, the increased supply has led to a price drop. Moreover, demand for locally grown tomatoes has surged. However, a YoY comparison shows a significant 21.15% price increase from USD 1.04/kg in W51 2023. This sharp rise is due to higher operational costs, particularly diesel and transportation, which have outpaced the growth in tomato prices. These rising costs have put financial pressure on producers, leading to protests in key agricultural regions.

France

In W51, France's tomato prices significantly declined by 8.85% WoW to USD 1.75/kg. This decrease is primarily due to increased supply from improved weather conditions in key production regions like Morocco and Spain, which led to higher yields and a more abundant market supply. Moreover, France's 2024 tomato production is estimated at 477 thousand mt, a 5% YoY increase. This increase is due to favorable weather conditions during the growing season and expanded cultivation areas. Despite the increased supply, the post-holiday period typically experiences lower consumption, contributing to reduced price pressures. However, colder-than-usual weather in key French tomato-producing regions, such as the South of France and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, has reduced local production by slowing growth and lowering yields.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Develop Strategic Export Plans for Greenhouse Tomatoes from Central Asia

In Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, greenhouse tomato prices have faced downward pressure due to a significant reduction in demand from Russian buyers. To counteract this, producers should seek to diversify their export markets by targeting regions with growing demand for greenhouse-grown vegetables, such as the Middle East and Europe, or even newer markets like China and Southeast Asia. Moreover, improving product quality and branding could help these countries position their tomatoes as a premium product, allowing them to compete in markets that value consistency, quality, and sustainability. Strengthening logistics and exploring opportunities for value-added tomato products, such as sauces or processed tomatoes, could further mitigate the impact of reduced demand from traditional markets like Russia.

Improve Cold Weather Resilience in Key Tomato-Producing Regions

Mexico and Morocco have faced significant disruptions in tomato production due to cold weather conditions, resulting in sharp price increases. To mitigate the risks of future supply shortages, growers in these regions should invest in climate-resistant infrastructure, such as greenhouse technology, which can better withstand extreme weather events. Furthermore, implementing weather forecasting systems and climate adaptation strategies can allow farmers to better anticipate adverse weather conditions and plan harvests. These actions would ensure a more stable supply, even in unpredictable climates, helping avoid drastic price fluctuations during critical periods like winter.

Diversify Tomato Varieties in the EU

As the EU faces a shift toward small-fruited varieties, especially snack tomatoes, and a decline in winter production, growers should focus on diversifying their tomato varieties to align with shifting consumer preferences. Investing in hybrid or resilient varieties, such as cherry, grape, and cocktail tomatoes, which are particularly popular for snacking, can help mitigate production declines. Varieties like Tumbling Tom and Red Pear are ideal for vertical farming systems, which can provide better winter yields. Moreover, Roma and Plum tomatoes could be targeted for niche markets focused on processed products like sauces and pastes. Growing organic and premium snack varieties like Sungold or Tomato Berry can help meet the rising demand for high-quality, sustainably produced tomatoes. These specialty varieties not only cater to evolving consumer preferences but also offer opportunities for growers to command higher prices, thus improving profitability. Building strong marketing campaigns around these trends could help maintain consumer demand even as production declines.

Sources: Tridge, Agriculture, Agrotimes, Eastfruit, Fresh Plaza