1. Weekly News

Australia

Australia's Orange Production Forecast to Increase to 545 Thousand MT

Australia's orange production is projected to increase from 520 thousand metric tons (mt) in 2023/24 to 545 thousand mt in 2024/25, reaching its highest levels in two decades due to favorable early-season conditions. This growth in both quantity and quality is expected to increase exports to 190 thousand mt, a 10 thousand mt rise from the previous season, returning exports to the historical highs of 2016/17 to 2019/20. The key Asian markets, China, Japan, and South Korea, will account for around 60% of total exports, with China remaining the largest, making up 22% in 2023/24. After three years of above-average rainfall that hindered production, improved weather and fruit quality are expected to enhance local production and international demand, especially in China.

Brazil

Brazil's Orange Production Outlook for 2024/25 Season

Brazil's orange production for the 2024/25 marketing year (MY) is forecast to reach 320 million 90-pound boxes, or 13 million metric tons (mmt), marking a 5.4% increase from the previous year's estimate of 12.3 mmt. This recovery follows the challenges faced in the 2023/24 crop, which was affected by premature flowering, a hot and dry summer, and drought conditions, particularly in São Paulo. With more favorable weather conditions from La Niña, including regular rains and cooler temperatures, Brazil's orange production is expected to improve in the next season. Additionally, the forecasted production of frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) is expected to rise by 8%, reflecting a slight recovery from the reduced availability of oranges for processing this season.

Egypt

Egypt's Valencia Orange Campaign Faces Sizing Challenges and Competitive Market

Egypt's Valencia orange campaign is progressing well. Strong global demand, particularly from Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and the Netherlands, is driving exports. Additionally, shipments to Canada are growing, with Egypt surpassing Spain and Morocco in exports to this market. However, exporters face challenges with fruit sizing this season, as large oranges account for only 20 to 25% of the total production. This limited availability of larger fruit has led exporters to focus on premium markets in the Gulf and select European countries, while smaller-sized oranges are directed to markets like India and Malaysia. Prices initially started 25% lower due to the abundance of small oranges but rebounded later in the season. The Red Sea crisis and logistical disruptions have also impacted shipments, especially to Southeast Asia. The success of the campaign hinges on sorting and packaging improvements, with exporters leveraging advanced technology to meet market-specific preferences.

Nepal

Orange Production Rises in Myagdi, Nepal, Despite Climate Challenges

Orange cultivation in Myagdi, Nepal, covers 810 hectares (ha), though only 425 ha are currently productive. Rising temperatures have shifted optimal growing conditions to altitudes above 1.5 thousand meters (m), prompting farmers to assess climate, weather, and soil suitability before planting and to treat old orchards post-harvest. Despite challenges such as temperature-related damage and soil acidity in Maubaphant, the district's production has increased from 3.6 thousand mt in 2024 to 4.7 thousand mt this year, driven by new orchards, favorable weather, and improved pest control. To support further growth, the government and local agricultural organizations are providing training, seed distribution, and irrigation programs.

United States

Florida 2024/25 Season Orange Forecast Revised

The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) 2024/25 Florida all-orange forecast estimates production at 11.5 million boxes. This is 500 thousand boxes lower than the Jan-25 estimate and represents a 36% year-on-year (YoY) decline from last year's final production. This forecast includes 4.5 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges, covering early, mid-season, and Navel varieties, and 7 million boxes of Valencia oranges. While the non-Valencia estimate was reduced by 500 thousand boxes, the Valencia forecast remains unchanged. The forecast also notes a decline in fruit size and an increase in fruit drop, particularly for Valencia oranges. With a statistical reliability of 6.7%, deviations from final estimates are expected to remain within a 6.7% margin, with a 90% confidence level that changes will not exceed 11.6%.

Florida Citrus Industry Faces Uncertainty as Trade War Intensifies

Florida's citrus industry is already struggling due to disease, hurricanes, and declining production, with the risk of further damage if a trade war with Canada resumes. A potential 25% tariff on American exports to Canada could heavily impact Florida's orange juice market. Florida’s citrus industry has experienced a dramatic decline, losing 90% of its production since 1998, and major suppliers like Alico have abandoned citrus farming. Despite state-funded research and subsidies, the industry's situation remains dire. Retaliatory tariffs could drive Canadian consumers to seek alternatives, worsening the challenges.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Orange Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Orange Pricing Important Exporters (W7 2024 to W7 2025)

South Africa

South Africa's orange prices rose by 8.26% WoW to USD 1.31/kg in W7, marking a 10.08% MoM increase. The price increase is due to a temporary tightening in fresh market supply as processing volumes continue to absorb a significant share of production. Additionally, improving export opportunities, particularly to primary markets in the EU and the Middle East, have supported price recovery. The anticipated slight production increase has not yet fully translated into excess supply in the domestic market, allowing prices to rebound from previous declines.

Egypt

In W7, orange prices in Egypt surged by 12.50% WoW to USD 0.27/kg, reflecting a 22.73% MoM increase and a 28.57% YoY rise due to tighter domestic supply following a projected 12% YoY decline in production to 3.7 mmt caused by adverse weather conditions. Strong export demand from the EU, where Egyptian oranges remain the top supplier despite lower shipments, has increased prices. Additionally, the influx of cheaper Egyptian oranges into EU markets has supported steady export volumes, limiting availability in the local market and contributing to the price surge.

United States

In W7, orange prices in the United States (US) increased by 7.78% WoW to USD 0.97/kg, registering a 5.43% MoM rise due to tightening local supply following the USDA’s downward revision of Florida’s all-orange production forecast. The supply constraints stem from citrus greening disease, past hurricane damage, and worsening fruit quality, which have reduced yields. Additionally, the ongoing structural decline in Florida’s citrus industry, with major suppliers exiting the market, has further limited availability. However, YoY prices dropped by 30.71% due to softer consumer demand, increased competition from cheaper Brazilian orange juice, and shifting market dynamics.

Italy

In Italy, orange prices climbed by 6.25% WoW to USD 1.70/kg in W7, reflecting a 4.94% MoM rise and an 8.97% YoY increase due to reduced availability as the Washington Navel season nears an early end, alongside strong demand for high-quality Tarocco blood oranges despite shifting sales patterns. Additionally, higher transportation costs and ongoing challenges in mainstream retail have further contributed to price pressures.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Optimize Harvest and Quality Control Measures

Florida citrus growers should implement strict quality control measures and optimize harvesting strategies to mitigate the impact of declining fruit size and increased drop rates. Adjusting irrigation, nutrient management, and pest control practices can help sustain tree health and improve fruit retention, ensuring better yields and market stability.

Strengthen Market Position with Strategic Supply Management

Florida citrus growers and distributors should coordinate supply management strategies to stabilize pricing and reduce potential losses from declining orange production. By optimizing distribution channels, prioritizing high-value markets, and adjusting sales timing based on projected availability, they can maintain profitability despite lower yields.

Improve Sizing Strategies for Key Markets

Egyptian orange exporters should prioritize premium markets for larger fruit while efficiently channeling smaller sizes to price-sensitive regions. Enhancing sorting and packaging with advanced technology will help meet specific market demands and maximize returns.

Sources: Tridge, Freshplaza, Fruitnet, Koreatimes, Risingnepaldaily, USDA