W7 Pork Update: China's Pork Imports Decline while Brazilian Pork Exports Surge

Published Feb 23, 2024

In W7 in the pork landscape, the US witnessed a record year for pork exports in 2023, with revenue and volume hitting all-time highs, driven by robust global demand. USMEF reported USD 8.16 billion in export revenue, a 6.0% YoY increase, and a volume of 2.91 mmt, up by 8.3% YoY. While Mexico remained the top destination, sales to Asia-Pacific regions also contributed significantly to the growth. Meanwhile, China saw a 4.6% YoY increase in pork production, rebounding from previous declines attributed to ASF outbreaks, despite a 4.1% YoY decrease in the pig herd size.

Strong Global Demand Boosts US Pork Exports in 2023

The United States Meat Export Federation (USMEF) reports a record year for United States (US) pork exports in 2023, exceeding both revenue and volume targets. US pork exports generated a record USD 8.16 billion in 2023, reflecting a 6.0% year-on-year (YoY) increase. Export volume reached 2.91 million metric tons (mmt) in 2023, representing an 8.3% YoY increase of 223.1 thousand metric tons (mt). This volume marks the third-highest on record, approaching the historical highs achieved in 2020 and 2021.

Mexico retained its position as the top US pork export destination, with significant volume and revenue growth. Strong expansion of pork sales to Mexico, with export volume and revenue increasing by 13.7% and 15.3% YoY, respectively, reached record levels of 1.10 mmt and USD 2.35 billion. Mexico maintained the second-highest revenue position at USD 1.39 billion, despite a slight 5% YoY decline attributed to reduced order volumes. Increased sales across other regions, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, further contributed to the overall growth. China and Hong Kong continued declining in export volume and revenue (7% and 9% YoY, respectively), reflecting ongoing trade tensions. Positive growth is observed in exports to Canada, South Korea, Central America, and the Caribbean (ranging between 9% to 17% YoY), as well as Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries (22% YoY) and Australia/New Zealand (100% YoY).

China's Pork Production Rebounds in 2023 Despite Declining Herd Size

China's National Bureau of Statistics has released data revealing a 4.6% YoY increase in pork production in 2023, reaching 57.94 mmt, indicating a recovery from previous declines. This growth comes after a period of decline due to African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreaks. However, despite production growth, China's pig herd size declined by 4.1% YoY in 2023, with a total of 434.22 million pigs in stock at the end of 2023. This decline is attributed to various factors, including lingering impacts of ASF outbreaks and rising feed costs. The number of pigs slaughtered in 2023 increased by 3.8% YoY, reaching 726.62 million heads.

China's overall livestock production, including pork, beef, lamb, and poultry, grew by 4.5% YoY in 2023, reaching 96.41 mmt. Beef production increased by 4.8% YoY to 7.53 mmt. This growth is attributed to factors such as improved breeding practices, disease control measures, and potentially increased sow productivity.