W7 Shrimp Update: Vietnamese Shrimp Exports Decline, US Imports Rebound with Pricing Concerns

Published 2024년 2월 23일

In W7 in the shrimp landscape, Vietnam's shrimp exports faced a 22% YoY decline in Nov-23, totaling around USD 3.15 billion, attributed to oversupply and competitive pricing. Despite this, shrimp production in Vietnam surged by 7.0% YoY to 134.7 thousand mt, signaling positive growth. In contrast, US shrimp imports for Oct-23 displayed a 9% YoY increase in volume, but a 4% YoY decrease in value, with a significant drop in average prices. Imports from India, Ecuador, and Indonesia showed mixed trends, with potential challenges looming due to impending anti-dumping duties starting in Mar-24, impacting import dynamics and costs.

Vietnam's Shrimp Exports Face Challenges Despite Rising Production

Vietnam's seafood exports witnessed a mixed performance in Nov-23, with shrimp exports experiencing a decline despite positive developments in production and select markets. Export revenue reached nearly USD 840 million in Nov-23, reflecting a 6% YoY increase. However, cumulative seafood exports for the first eleven months of 2023 stand at USD 8.27 billion, representing a 19% year-over-year (YoY) decline compared to the same period in 2022. Shrimp exports exhibited a 22% YoY decrease reaching an estimated value of USD 3.15 billion as of Nov-23.

This decline is attributed to an oversupplied global shrimp market and lower selling prices, intensifying competition and impacting Vietnamese shrimp exports. While exports to most major markets declined, modest increases were observed in Hong Kong, Switzerland, and Taiwan. Despite the export decline, Vietnam's shrimp production displayed positive growth. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, shrimp harvest in Nov-23 reached 134.7 thousand metric tons (mt), reflecting a 7.0% YoY increase. Aquaculture output, including shrimp, also witnessed a 5.2% YoY growth. While Vietnam's shrimp production is on an upward trajectory, the export outlook remains uncertain.

Rebound in Volume, Declining Prices, and Trade Concerns in the US Shrimp Imports

Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reveals mixed trends in the United States (US) shrimp imports for Oct-23 and the first 10 months of 2023. Shrimp imports reached 76.4 thousand mt, reflecting a 9% YoY increase, indicating a potential recovery from the previous year's decline. Import value reached USD 609 million, indicating a 4% YoY decrease, suggesting lower average prices despite volume growth. The average import price stood at USD 7.98 per kilogram (kg), marking a 12% YoY decrease and potentially indicating a price correction in the market. Imports from India increased by 9% YoY, reaching 29.86 thousand mt, with an import value of USD 226 million (5% YoY decrease). Imports from Ecuador witnessed an 18% YoY increase to 18.4 thousand mt, with an import value of USD 124 million (5% YoY increase). Imports from Indonesia experienced a slight 1% YoY decline to 13 thousand mt, with an import value of USD 99.5 million (15% YoY decrease).

In the first eleven months of 2023, total imports amounted to 651.9 thousand mt, representing a 9% YoY decrease. Total import value was approximately USD 5.4 billion, reflecting a 20% YoY decline. Imports from India decreased by 5% YoY to 245.2 thousand mt, with a corresponding 19% YoY decrease in import value (USD 1.9 billion). Imports from Ecuador increased by 2% YoY to 1727 thousand mt, while the import value decreased by 10% YoY to USD 1.2 billion. Total imports from Indonesia decreased by 15% YoY to 120 thousand mt, with a corresponding 28% YoY decrease in import value (USD 921 million).

While US shrimp imports in Oct-23 exhibited a volume rebound, the upcoming "double-reverse" investigation against shrimp imports from Indonesia, Ecuador, India, and Vietnam poses a potential challenge for US importers. Anti-dumping duties ranging from 9.55% to 33.95% are expected to be imposed starting in Mar-24, potentially impacting import dynamics and costs.