W8 Oat Update: USDA Maintained 2023/24 Oat Production Forecast Amidst Downward Revision in World Cereal Output

Published 2024년 2월 28일

In W8 in the oats landscape, the USDA's Feb-24 report reduced its forecast for global cereal production for 2023/24 by 2.9 mmt, with oat production remaining unchanged. Despite below-average availability, the UK exported oats quicker than average in the first half of the 2023/24 MY, reaching 74.2 thousand mt, driven by demand from the EU. However, prices for oats and other grains on the domestic market decreased in late Jan-24 and early Feb-24, with consumer oats priced at USD 277.63/mt, marking an 18% YoY decrease.

USDA Maintained 2023/24 Oat Forecast Amid World Cereal Output Revision

In its Feb-24 report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) revised downwards its previous forecast for 2023/24 world cereal production by 2.9 million metric tons (mmt), resulting in a new forecast of 2,295.82 mmt. However, oat production remains unchanged at 19.3 mmt.

UK Oat Exports Surge Despite Limited Availability in First Half of 2023/24 MY

In the first half of the 2023/24 marketing year (MY), the United Kingdom (UK) exported oats faster than average despite below-average availability. From July 1 to December 31, 2023, the UK exported 74.2 thousand metric tons (mt) of oats, down from 89.5 thousand mt in the first half of the 2022/23 MY but significantly above the five-year average of 46.8 thousand mt for the same period. This pace is driven by demand from the European Union (EU), with Belgium, Spain, and Germany being the main destinations. The increased demand follows a 20% decrease in EU-27 oat production in 2023. However, while the pace of exports has been strong, it is uncertain if it is sustainable. The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) forecasted UK oat exports for the season at 100 thousand mt, leaving 25.8 thousand mt to be shipped from January 1 to June 30 to meet this forecast. The pace seen in the first half of the season suggests that the total volume shipped could exceed this estimate.

Oats Prices Declined 18% YoY on Domestic Market in Early 2024

From January 29 to February 4, 2024, prices for all monitored grains decreased on the domestic market. According to data from the Integrated Agricultural Market Information System of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the price for consumer oats was purchased at USD 277.63/mt , which is 18% cheaper year-on-year (YoY).