W9 Apple Update: Apple Prices Increasing Globally in 2023/24 Season, Southern Hemisphere Apple Production Forecasts for 2024, and Santa Catarina’s Apple Production to Decrease by 11% Amidst Challenges

Published 2024년 3월 6일

In W9 in the apple landscape, according to industry experts, the surge of apple prices in the global market is a normal economic phenomenon, but it often fails to cover storage expenses. The Ukrainian Agricultural Export Association predicts a 1% YoY increase in Southern Hemisphere countries' apple production in 2024. However, Ukraine faces increasing competition from Serbia, Moldova, Poland, and Turkey. Moldova is Ukraine's weakest competitor in the foreign apple market. Furthermore, the war in Palestine has affected the Greek apple season. Lastly, Brazil's national apple producer, Santa Catarina, is experiencing an 11% YoY decrease in production.

Global Apple Market Price Increases Impact Demand Amid Rising Popularity in 2024

Experts believe global market price increases, particularly for apple, are normal economic phenomena. However, as a Ukrainian market review highlights, these increases often fail to cover storage expenses. The First Ukrainian Apples Producers Aggregating Company (USPA Fruit) head explains that the price hike affects apples of all quality grades, including those for technical purposes. The increase primarily affects export varieties like Royal Gala, Golden, Red Delicious, Granny Smith, and Fuji but indirectly affects other apple varieties due to increased demand.

Southern Hemisphere Apple Production Forecast to Increase by 1% YoY in 2024

The Ukrainian Agricultural Export Association predicts a 1% year-over-year (YoY) increase in apple production by Southern Hemisphere countries in 2024, reaching 4.8 million metric tons (mmt). South Africa leads in apple production with a 5% increase to 1.4 mmt. Brazil remains stable at 1.1 mmt, while Chile is expected to decrease by 8%. New Zealand is predicted to increase by 15% to 600 thousand metric tons (mt), Argentina will decrease by 5% to 500 thousand mt, and Australia will increase by 6% to 300 thousand mt. The main apple variety, Gala, is expected to remain stable at around 1.6 mmt.

Furthermore, the association predicts an 8% increase in total exports from South Africa, Chile, and New Zealand, reaching 1.6 mmt, driven by increased efforts to expand their exports to foreign markets.

Ukrainian Apple Industry Faces Challenges from Eastern European Competitors

In addition, Ukrainian apples are facing increasing competition from Serbia, Moldova, Poland, and Türkiye, according to the head of the USPA Fruit company. Türkiye has already sold Royal Hala, Serbia has limited stock, and Moldova still has apples for sale. With its shorter list of agreed phytosanitary conditions, Poland has a slightly advantageous position compared to Ukraine. Poland supplies apples to South Africa and some developed Southeast Asian countries, while Ukraine typically competes with these countries.

Moldova's Plan to Enhance Competitiveness in Ukraine's Apple Market

According to experts, Moldova is considered Ukraine's weakest competitor in the foreign apple market despite both countries being relatively equal exporters. The head of the USPA Fruit company suggests that Moldovan producers should consider adapting their packaging standards for export to align with international norms. While Moldova is competitive, there is room for improvement in shipment schedules, caliber systems, and the quality of apples. Ukraine faces increasing pressure from neighboring competitors in the apple market, such as Serbia, Moldova, Poland, and Turkey. Despite this, the apple market in Ukraine remains relatively inactive, as stated by an industry expert.

Greek Apple Market Faces Lower Demand and Prices Despite Competitive Pricing

The Greek apple season for 2023/24 began strong. However, the war in Palestine significantly reduced exports to the Middle East from Nov-23 to Feb-24. This has affected producers, leading to lower demand and lower prices. Despite competitive pricing, the market remains weak. The Greek apple season was initially expected to be profitable, but the lack of volumes and under-consumption of apples has caused uncertainty. The market is also experiencing shipment delays, posing risks of quality deterioration and higher transportation costs. The low demand has decreased prices, as large quantities of unsold apples remain in cold storage. Despite these challenges, producers like Kissavos Agricultural Cooperative strive to maintain quality and prices, aiming to remain competitive and offer the best products to customers.

Santa Catarina Apple Production Expected to Drop by 11% in 2024

Santa Catarina, Brazil's most significant national apple producer, is anticipating a harvest of 500 thousand tons in 2024. However, the market is experiencing an 11% YoY decrease, primarily due to reduced stocks from the last harvest and delayed new production. The main apple-producing regions have reported decreases in production estimates. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) ranks Santa Catarina as the top state in apple production, followed by Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, São Paulo, and Minas Gerais. In the São Joaquim region, approximately 2.6 thousand family farmers cultivate apples on 14 thousand hectares (ha) of planted area. Some apple producers have transitioned from potato production to an apple orchard in the municipality.