On-the-Ground Updates

DDGS refineries on the verge of a supply collapse

Market & Price Trends
Innovation & Technology
Caio Alves
Published Apr 26, 2020
The recent Brent and WTI oil price steep dives in the global market hampered the corn prospect for the 2020 campaign. As previously reported by Tridge, US refineries had evaded contracts for corn one month ago, having plants either shutting down operations or reducing its output up to 60% in order to edge operational costs and balance the negative impact. Therefore even with a massive corn stock, ethanol plants are not allocating enough to the dry-milling factories to process, hence less is the feedstock available to produce DDGS.
Feedyards in Lethbridge pointed out for prices being adjusted to 15-20% more than feed barley prices, ranging from $305 to $325/mt while feed barley is $235 /mt. According to the USDA, on April 2, DDGS was priced in Nebraska at US$175-222/mt and Western Iowa at US$174/mt, the comparable five-year average is under US$140/mt.

As it is a less expensive protein choice, including dairy cattle, sheep, and poultry, the product traditionally accounts for nearly 80% to cattle consumption within the United States, with 50% of the amount fed to beef cattle and 30% to dairy cattle.

If the current scenario remains, meat producers will have to swap to canola meal or other substitute products which could also mean having to source specific ingredients, such as amino acids.
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