W4 Potato Update: Global Potato Prices Surge Amidst Supply Challenges and Climate Issues, Egyptian Government Initiatives Propel Growth Amidst Challenges, and Tajikistan's Record Potato Production in 2023

Potato Prices in Brazilian Wholesale Market Surge Amidst Supply Constraints and Weather Challenges

Potato prices have risen across all wholesalers in Brazil due to reduced supply from southern regions due to persistent rains and challenges in planting. In São Paulo, the average wholesale price for special agate potatoes reached USD 31.34 per 25 kilograms (BRL 155.15/25kg), an 8.86% week-on-week (WoW) increase. The potato price saw a 10.34% WoW increase in Rio de Janeiro, with a bag selling at USD 26.43/25 kg (BRL 130.83/25 kg).

Ukraine Grapples with Surging Potato Prices and Cross-Border Impact

In W4, potato prices in Ukraine have experienced a notable 12% week-on-week (WoW) surge, primarily attributed to constrained supply and quality concerns arising during the harvest. Potato prices range from USD 0.48 to USD 0.67/kg (UAH 18 to 25/kg). The scarcity has prompted an uptick in imports, mainly from Poland, where prices are 20% lower. Nevertheless, the increased engagement of Ukrainian importers has also triggered a price hike in Poland. The current potato prices in Ukraine stand at four times the level observed in 2022, and there are expectations of further increases due to potential supply shortages.

Moldova Grapples with Potato Price Surge Amid Depleting Reserves

Wholesale potato prices in Moldova have witnessed a 10 to 12% surge, reverting to the range observed in early Jan-24, falling between USD 0.39 to 0.50/kg (MDL 7 to 9/kg). The price rise is being tempered by importing more affordable Belarusian potatoes despite the associated high logistics costs. Nevertheless, with Moldova's native potato reserves diminishing rapidly, it is possible that the country might soon feature the most expensive potatoes. Additionally, there are intentions to import potatoes from Egypt in early Feb-24, though this move is anticipated to incur substantial costs.

Australia Prepares for a Potato Shortage Despite Climate Change

Australian potato farmers anticipate a significant future potato scarcity, attributing it to increased extreme weather events. By Jan-23, there was already a shortage of potatoes for fast food and chip production chains caused by weather-related storms and heavy rainfall in Victoria and Tasmania. Studies indicate that the frequency of heatwaves may rise, further straining potato cultivation. The potato acreage in Australia is decreasing as fewer individuals are willing to take risks, leading to escalating prices. Analysts predict that Australia will evolve into a significant potato importer in the future, as the cost of importing will likely be more economical than domestic cultivation.

Russian Potato Union Advocates for Increased Import Duties Amidst Record Production

The Potato Union in Russia proposes increasing import duties on potatoes and their products to protect the domestic market amid a record harvest. The union's head argues that the industry faces problems due to additional export customs duties. Russia has an import duty of 5% on potatoes, but the union has proposed raising it to 15%. Enforced on October 1, 2023, the flexible export duties could negatively impact the export opportunities of Russian potatoes. The volume of potato production in Russia reached 8.6 million tons in 2023, an 18% year-over-year (YoY) increase.

Egyptian Government Projects Drive Potato Production Surge Amidst Varied Projections and Export Potential

Egypt is experiencing a significant increase in potato production due to the extensive land reclaimed through recent government projects. However, harvest estimates and export volumes vary among potato producers who envision volumes remaining consistent with the previous season, citing potential frost damage, and anticipate a price increase due to heightened demand. Large areas with higher productivity and lower pesticide residues are expected to increase potato production by 2.5 million tons. However, producers predict frost shortages and a 10% increase in area, but high demand and the devaluation of the Egyptian pound could lead to significant exports.

Zimbabwe Suspends South African Potato Imports Over Pepper Ringspot Virus Concerns

Zimbabwe has temporarily halted imports of South African potatoes due to the detection of the pepper ringspot virus (PepRSV). The virus was first recorded in the country in 2020 and has since been confirmed in various potato production regions. The virus is considered manageable and unlikely to cause significant harm to potato production and the industry. The Department of Agriculture, Land Reform, and Rural Development has introduced quarantine measures and lifted quarantine measures on fresh potatoes. The disease is visible on tubers and leaves as ringspot symptoms and annular internal browning. The government is determining the extent of the spread of the virus through surveys.

Potato Production in Tajikistan Surged by 4.6% in 2023

Tajikistan recorded its most productive year in potato harvest in 2023, with a gross yield of 1.145 million tons, marking a 4.6% YoY increase. Most of this harvest was cultivated on farms and public farms, while the rest was grown on household plots. Ranking 4th in Central Asia, Tajikistan produced approximately 111 kg of potatoes per capita. The country's potato yield was about 240 centners per hectare (ha), the second highest in the region after Uzbekistan. Tajikistan's potato stocks also increased, reaching nearly 176 thousand tons.