The International Olive Council (IOC) predicts that world oil production will be around 3.197 millions MT in the 2020/21 campaign compared to 3.207 millions MT from the previous season. According to data from that organization, in November, of the total production of olive oil, 2.232 million MT tons correspond to the production of the European Union, 16% more than in the 2019/20 campaign.
For Spain, the IOC predicts 1.596 millions MT, an increase of 41.8%. In the case of Italy it estimates 255K MT (-30.3%) and for Greece 265K MT (-3.6%); followed by Portugal (100K MT, -28%); Cyprus (6.1K MT, -12.8%); France (5.2K MT, -11.8%); Croatia (4.6K MT, + 12.1%); and Slovenia (800 MT, + 166%).
Outside the European Union, Turkey (210K MT, -6.6%), Morocco (160K MT, + 10.3%), Tunisia (120K MT, -65.7%) and Syria ( 115,K MT, -4.1%).
Falling consumption
In turn, world consumption will be 3.185 millions MT, which means a decrease of 1.49% compared to the previous campaign. The EU will continue to lead consumption, with a total of 1.593 million MT (+ 4.9%), followed by far by the United States, with 400K MT (+ 11.9%); and Turkey, with 170K MT (-2.8%), according to COI data.
With regard to global exports, that organization estimates a total of 989.5 K MT of olive oil, which represents a 17.8% decrease compared to the previous season. The EU also leads sales abroad of this product, with 723K MT (-3.6%), followed by Tunisia, with 100K MT (-66.6%).
On the other hand, global imports are expected to stand at 957K MT, which represents a drop of 17.2% compared to the previous year. The United States will continue as the main buyer of oil, with 350K MT (-10.4%).