A study has projected that Argentine exports of grains and by-products (as long as a climatic catastrophe does not happen and with prices and volumes similar to those of 2020), could add up to USD 31.1B in 2021, which is about USD 4.6B more of what was contributed by the sector in 2020.
The study builds several probable scenarios but, in all cases, even the most pessimistic, the contribution of agro-dollars would be greater in 2021 than in 2020.
Regarding average export prices, the analysis is based on future prices and own estimates. For example, soybeans are assumed to have an average value of USD 448/TN, corn to USD 198/TN, soybean meal to USD 423/TN, and so on. Then two bullish and two bearish scenarios were carried out, which could occur depending on how the fundamental variables of the market evolve.
An important remark is that the scenarios with climatic problems assume droughts between mild and moderate, neither extreme nor exceptional, that is to say, average yield drops of between 5% and 10%, making it clear that everything could change if the climate episode is more extreme.
The study builds several probable scenarios but, in all cases, even the most pessimistic, the contribution of agro-dollars would be greater in 2021 than in 2020.
Regarding average export prices, the analysis is based on future prices and own estimates. For example, soybeans are assumed to have an average value of USD 448/TN, corn to USD 198/TN, soybean meal to USD 423/TN, and so on. Then two bullish and two bearish scenarios were carried out, which could occur depending on how the fundamental variables of the market evolve.
An important remark is that the scenarios with climatic problems assume droughts between mild and moderate, neither extreme nor exceptional, that is to say, average yield drops of between 5% and 10%, making it clear that everything could change if the climate episode is more extreme.
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