Cocoa market expected to register surplus in 2025/26 crop

"Despite the improvement in the balance, the environment remains highly volatile, sensitive to climatic, financial, and logistical factors," says Carolina França, market intelligence analyst at Hedgepoint. The global supply shows signs of recovery. Côte d'Ivoire managed to reverse delays in deliveries, while Ghana maintains production at risk due to the incidence of diseases in aging crops. Ecuador reinforces its role as the main growth driver, supported by favorable climatic conditions and continuous investments, with a projection of 570 thousand tons and an upward bias. Nevertheless, inventories remain below the historical average, which keeps volatility high. On the demand side, the movement is uneven among regions. The European Union recorded a drop in imports and a contraction in grinding, influenced by weakened demand and high prices. In Asia, the reduction was even more intense, especially in Malaysia. North America, on the other hand, showed an increase in net imports, ...