COMMODITIES 2026: India’s surplus rice supply to weigh on global prices, reshape trade in Q1

This is part of the COMMODITIES 2026 series, where our reporters bring to you key themes that will drive commodities markets in 2026. India’s record-breaking rice production and increasingly competitive pricing are poised to redefine global trade dynamics in early 2026, as buyers shift their focus toward the world’s largest exporter, according to market sources who spoke to Platts, part of S&P Global Energy. This shift could reconfigure major export routes, intensify price pressure on rival suppliers and set the pace for international rice prices through the first quarter of 2026. Platts projects India’s rice production for marketing year 2025-26 (October-September) at 151.8 million mt, up 800,000 mt year over year. India’s supply strength to drive Asian trade early 2026 India enters 2026 with strong bullish sentiment, backed by record Kharif output. First estimates for the Kharif crop were at a record 124.504 million metric tons for MY 2024-25 (October-September), up 1.7 million ...