Soybeans: Chinese commitment raises doubts in the market

Since the "framework" trade agreement signed on October 30 between the United States and China, doubts have grown over whether Beijing will actually fulfill its commitment to purchase 12 million tons of American soybeans in 2025 and 25 million tons annually between 2026 and 2028. Although recent shipments have reactivated the flow, experts consider that the volumes are still far from the targets and are unlikely to be met in the short term or in the next three years. According to Reuters, six shipments are being prepared in the ports of the Gulf of Mexico and one is already on its way, marking the first shipment since spring. However, even with 1.584 million tons purchased in just three days in the week of November 16, the accumulated total is still far below the target, with less than a month left until the end of the year. For the chief economist of StoneX Group, Arlan Suderman, China tends to buy just enough "to appear active," and the market has already priced in around 8 to ...