The estimate did not come true: The global grain production could fall by that much in 2024

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has revised its global grain production forecast for 2024 to 2,848 million tons, down slightly from the October estimate, largely due to reduced corn average yields caused by adverse weather. Despite this, the year is expected to see the second-largest wheat crop on record, bolstered by expansion in Asian countries and favorable climatic conditions. However, sowing of winter wheat in northern hemisphere regions may be hindered by lower prices, with varying weather conditions impacting sowing in Europe and Russia, and government subsidies influencing wheat production in China and India. Argentine maize acreage is expected to decline due to moisture shortage, while South African maize might see a rebound with favorable prices and weather. Rice production is anticipated to hit a record high of 538.9 million tons. Global grain consumption in 2024/25 is estimated to increase slightly from the previous year to 2,857 million tons, driven by food use. The grain stock might rise to 889 million tons, with rice stocks increasing the most and wheat stocks decreasing. The FAO also predicts a decrease in the world's estimated grain trade by 3.9 percent to 485 million tons, primarily due to a expected decline in wheat trade, although this could be balanced by a strengthening of rice trade.