Poland: What grain stocks were estimated to be much higher than previously reported?

Published 2024년 4월 22일

Tridge summary

Dr. Wiesław Łopaciuk provided a comprehensive analysis of the cereal market, predicting a surplus of 8.4 million tonnes for the 2023/2024 season, largely due to uncommercial cereals on farms, a figure that stands out against other analysts' predictions. His research, prompted by EU regulations, also touched on the effects of the war in Ukraine and the pandemic on the global and Polish grain markets, noting a significant increase in grain imports from Ukraine to Poland, which has led to a surplus despite record exports. Łopaciuk pointed out the regional impact of these imports and discussed the broader implications for food security, market risks, and the reorientation of supply chains. The analysis reflects the complexities of the global grain market, including the asymmetry in trade between Poland and Ukraine and the varying regional impacts within Poland.
Disclaimer:The above summary was generated by Tridge's proprietary AI model for informational purposes.

Original content

Dr. Wiesław Łopaciuk provided many data during his speech, including: cereal balance (excluding buckwheat, millet and other cereals in thousand tonnes). He estimates that in the 2023/2024 season final stocks will amount to as much as 8.4 million tonnes, which is significantly higher than reported by other analysts, who in March estimated the then stocks at approximately 9 million tonnes, and the final stocks, i.e. in June, at approx. 3-4 million tons. This is important in the context of the surplus of grain that is still in farmers' warehouses. Is it that high? The exact calculations can be seen on the slide below. How is this grain surplus assessed now and where do these numbers come from? - Some analysts may disagree with this inventory level. But last year, in response to the EU regulation on reporting inventory levels, the Central Statistical Office began research on monthly inventory levels in entities operating in the grain sector and employing more than 10 people. It is ...
Source: Farmer.pl

Would you like more in-depth insights?

Gain access to detailed market analysis tailored to your business needs.
By clicking “Accept Cookies,” I agree to provide cookies for statistical and personalized preference purposes. To learn more about our cookies, please read our Privacy Policy.