Tight Tomato Supply in the US Expected to Boost Mexican Imports

The US is experiencing a tight supply of tomatoes in early 2021 as production in Florida of grape, cherry, and round tomatoes are down due to December rains and a recent cold spell. This has led prices to increase to USD 26-30 for 25-pound boxes, according to the USDA. Domestic tomato prices in Philadelphia showed one of the biggest increases, rising from USD 1.72 per kg in early December to USD 2.89 per kg in late December.

Source: Tridge

The US is the largest worldwide importer of tomatoes, importing a value of USD 2.4 billion in 2019, and accounting for 26.7% of the share in world imports. Of its import markets, Mexico takes a considerable amount, approximately 85.8% of the total import share. The rest is supplied largely from Canada, and from other nearing countries such as Guatemala to a smaller extent. While the US also imports tomatoes from countries such as New Zealand and Spain in much smaller quantities, there is a staggering difference in export prices of approximately USD 3.96 to 7.37 per kg compared to prices of Mexican tomatoes of USD 1.22 per kg. Thus the main channel of the extra supply is expected to come from Mexico.

Data Source: ITC Trade Map

This follows a general trend of increasing Mexican imports in 2020. While tomato exports from Mexico had already decreased by 25% in April compared to the volume imported in March from a decline in demand in the US market, overall exports increased by approximately 122% during the January-October period from (2019-2020) in terms of value. The December frosts and subsequent price rises are expected to contribute to the rising import trend for Mexican tomatoes to the US.

Sources

• ITC Trade Map. HS Code 0702 Tomatoes, fresh or chilled