W10 Lamb and Mutton Update: Welsh Lamb and Beef Exports in 2023, EU Meat Production Forecasts for 2024

Published 2024년 3월 15일

In W10 in the lamb and mutton landscape, The Welsh red meat export sector in 2023 showed contrasting trends, with lamb exports experiencing growth while beef exports declined. According to new data from HMRC, Welsh lamb exports saw a notable volume and value increase, attributed to post-Brexit trade dynamics, particularly with the EU. However, Welsh beef exports faced challenges, with a decrease in total export value despite growth in exports to Hong Kong. Meanwhile, a European Commission report predicts a decline in meat production across the EU in the latter half of 2024, particularly in sheep and goat production. Spain expects to maintain its position as the top producer of pork and sheep, while France anticipates leading in beef production.

Strong Lamb Performance Offsets Beef Decline in Welsh Red Meat Exports

Wale’s red meat export sector witnessed a mixed performance in 2023. While it experienced a strong growth in lamb exports, particularly to the European Union (EU), new data from His Majesty's Revenue and Customs (HMRC) provided insights into Welsh red meat exports in 2023. Welsh lamb exports continued their positive trajectory in 2023, with both volume and value registering year-over-year (YoY) increases. Total export volume reached an estimated 30.5 thousand metric tons (mt), indicating a 12% YoY increase. The total value of lamb exports climbed to USD 243.3 million, representing a 10% YoY rise. The post-Brexit trade environment appears to have benefitted Welsh lamb exports, with shipments to the EU experiencing a significant increase. Fresh and frozen lamb exports to the EU rose by 13% YoY in volume and 14% YoY in value, reaching USD 229.9 million in 2023.

While France and Germany remain key destinations for Welsh lamb, exports to Italy and the Netherlands are experiencing notable growth. Notably, lamb exports to Italy surged by nearly 40% in volume compared to 2022. Welsh beef exports exhibited a contrasting trend in 2023. The total value of beef exports declined by 8% YoY to USD 98.4 million, despite a 33% YoY increase in export value to Hong Kong. This decline is accompanied by a 14% YoY decrease in total beef export volume.

EU Faces Downward Trend in Livestock Production: Sheep, Goat Numbers Most Impacted

A recent report from the European Commission forecasts a decrease in overall meat production within the EU for the latter half of 2024. Sheep production is expected to have the most significant decline, with a projected decrease of 7% YoY compared to the same period in 2023. This translates to an estimated output of 15.6 million head in H2-24. Goat production is also anticipated to experience a decline, albeit at a slightly lower rate of 9% YoY, reaching an estimated 2.4 million head in H2-24.

Spain anticipates maintaining its position as the EU's top producer of both pork (estimated at 13.6 million head in Q4-24) and sheep (over 4.5 million head in H2-24). France expects to remain the leading producer of beef in H2-24, with an estimated output of 2.7 million head. Production volumes for pigs and cattle are expected to exhibit a more moderate decline. Pig production is forecast to decrease by 1% in Q4-24 compared to Q4-23, resulting in an estimated output of 57.7 million head. Cattle production in H2-24 is projected to reach 12.1 million head, reflecting a 1% decrease compared to H2-23.