W12 Coffee Update: Global Coffee Production to Exceed Consumption in 2023/24 MY, Uganda Maintains Robust Export Performance

Global Coffee Surplus Expected for 2023/24 MY Despite Modest Consumption Increase

The worldwide coffee production forecast for the 2023/24 marketing year (MY) is approximately 178 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags. This estimate comprises 102.2 million bags of Arabica, constituting 57.4% of the total, and 75.8 million bags of Robusta and Conilon, 42.6% of the global production. This production forecast indicates a 5.8% increase year-on-year (YoY). However, global coffee consumption for the same period is expected to be around 177 million 60 kg bags, representing a modest 2.2% YoY increase. Despite the slight rise in consumption, the global coffee market is projected to have a surplus of approximately 1 million bags in the focus coffee year. This surplus reflects the continued growth in coffee production rather than the increase in consumption.

Brazil's Coffee Harvest Sales Reach 84% of Potential by March 12

Brazil's coffee harvest sales for the 2023/24 season reached 84% of potential by March 12, marking a 5% increase month-on-month (MoM). However, these sales figures still slightly lag behind the five-year average for the same period. The estimated harvest for the 2023/24 season is 65.53 million 60-kg bags, of which 55.03 million have already been sold. The market is experiencing less volatility, with prices remaining stable as stakeholders await developments in the fundamental panorama. Regarding the 2024/25 harvest, advance sales are approximately 11% of production potential, below the average for the period and similar to the previous year. Sales of Arabica coffee represent 14% of the harvest, while Conilon sales reach 6%, both below the historical average. The slower sales for the 2024/25 harvest are due to the high price of Conilon, which has deterred domestic buyers. Additionally, producers are hesitant to engage in forward negotiations due to the recent memory of prices below market rates in the previous harvest.

Brazil's Coffee Exports Increased 77% YoY in Feb-24

Brazil's coffee exports surged by 77% YoY in Feb-24, reaching 3.61 million 60-kg bags. Brazil is gearing up to harvest the new coffee crop starting around Apr-24 for Robusta and May-24 or Jun-24 for Arabica beans. However, Brazilian coffee exporters are encountering logistical hurdles, including delays in loading caused by late arrivals of container ships, which could impede further growth in coffee shipments.

Belgium's Coffee Imports from Non-EU Markets Declined in 2023

Belgium coffee imports from non-European Union (EU) markets totaled 288.51 thousand metric tons (mt) in 2023, valued at nearly USD 1.21 billion, marking a YoY decrease of 26.9% in volume and 31% in value. The average import price of Belgian coffee from non-EU markets was USD 4193.75/mt, down 5.6% YoY. Belgium's coffee imports primarily come from sources outside the EU, including Brazil, Vietnam, Honduras, Colombia, and Peru. Belgium imported 57.94 thousand mt of coffee from Vietnam in 2023, valued at USD 151.54 million, marking a YoY decrease of 14.3% in volume and 16.6% in value. Vietnam's market share in Belgium's total imports from non-EU markets increased from 17.13% in 2022 to 20.08% in 2023.

Uganda's Coffee Exports Reached USD 82.56 Million in Feb-24

Uganda exported 434.58 thousand 60-kg bags of coffee in Feb-24, totaling USD 82.56 million. This comprised 372.40 thousand bags of Robusta valued at USD 68.58 million and 62.17 thousand bags of Arabica valued at USD 13.98 million. From Mar-23 to Feb-24, coffee exports reached 6.06 million bags worth USD 999.8 million. African countries importing Ugandan coffee included Morocco, Sudan, Algeria, South Africa, Egypt, and Kenya. Europe remained the primary destination for Ugandan coffee, accounting for a 64% import share, down from 72% in Jan-24. According to the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA), there was a 9.36% decrease in quantity but a 25.06% increase in value compared to the same month last year.