1. Weekly News

Bolivia

Bolivia Considers Lifting Beef Export Ban as Domestic Price Drop

The Bolivian government is considering lifting the two-month-long ban on beef exports. The livestock sector has criticized the ban, arguing that domestic production is sufficient. The government has focused on increasing the supply of meat to the domestic market, which has led to a drop in beef prices. If the downward price trend continues, the government will reassess the ban. The Ministry of Rural Development and Lands is set to further discuss the matter. Foreign markets like Egypt and Chile are being targeted for export expansion. Negotiations with Egypt aim to include bovine offal, while Chile has shown interest in importing beef, milk, and dairy products. Bolivia’s strategy includes diversifying its international markets for agricultural products, with potential growth in the livestock and dairy sectors if export restrictions are lifted. However, the priority remains reducing domestic beef prices before resuming exports.

Brazil

Brazil Strengthens Its Position as the World's Leading Beef Exporter

Brazil is positioning itself as a global meat export leader, leveraging its vast agricultural resources, advanced technology, and strategic trade agreements. Amid United States (US) protectionist policies and global trade shifts, experts highlight Brazil’s potential to fill supply gaps, particularly in meat exports. However, logistical challenges such as inadequate infrastructure remain obstacles to its competitiveness. Recent diplomatic efforts have focused on expanding market access, notably with Vietnam and Japan. Brazil signed an agreement with Vietnam to boost bilateral trade, opening new opportunities for Brazilian beef exports to Southeast Asia. Additionally, Japan is set to inspect Brazilian slaughterhouses, a crucial step toward approving Brazilian beef exports and expanding pork trade. With its status as the world’s largest beef exporter, Brazil continues to strengthen its global market position by enhancing productivity, overcoming trade barriers, and fostering international cooperation.

Paraguay

Paraguay Eyes New Markets as Potential US Trade Barriers Looms

Paraguayan beef has strengthened its global presence, achieving a historic milestone in 2024 with the resumption of exports to the US, following years of negotiations and rigorous health inspections. While initial shipments to the US have been promising, concerns over potential tariffs from the US administration are prompting Paraguay to explore alternative markets, including Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Saudi Arabia. The US quickly became a key buyer, surpassing Israel and ranking as Paraguay’s fourth-largest beef importer. In Feb-25, Paraguay also made its first shipment of frozen kosher meat to the US, further diversifying its market reach. Despite uncertainties, Paraguay's beef exports continue to grow, with Feb-25 shipments reaching 34.25 thousand metric tons (mt) and generating USD 191 million, reflecting a 30% increase in volume and 29% in value from Jan-25.

Peru

Peru Targets Global Meat Markets with Strategic Export Initiatives

Peru’s National Agrarian Health Service (Senasa) is working to expand international markets for the country’s meat products, including beef, pork, poultry, and lamb. Focused on markets in Brazil, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Malaysia, Singapore, and China, Senasa has already secured access for 174 livestock products and is working to export meat for the first time. With the country’s disease-free status and increasing global demand for meat, these efforts aim to boost opportunities for local farmers and enhance Peru’s competitiveness in international markets.

Slovakia

Slovakia Halts Beef Sales Due to FMD Outbreak

The Slovak Ministry of Agriculture has estimated the financial damage from a recent foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak at approximately USD 10.80 million (EUR 10 million). In response to the outbreak, beef sales have been halted to prevent the disease from spreading to neighboring Poland. The Slovak government declared a state of emergency nationwide after two new outbreaks were confirmed, adding to the three initial cases in the southern part of the country. The disease has now spread to farms in Galanta, western Slovakia, and Dunajska Streda in the south, prompting authorities to extend the state of emergency across the entire country.

United States

US Beef Struggles in Chinese Market Due to Trade Tensions and Oversupply Concerns

US beef exports to China have sharply declined, with sales dropping to just 54 mt for the week ending March 20. This is attributed to the expiration of export registrations for US meat plants, which Beijing has not renewed since March 16. This is compounded by a tariff dispute between the US and China, which has increased tariffs on US beef, making it less appealing to Chinese buyers. The decline follows weeks of steady sales above 2 thousand mt but has led to uncertainty among traders, causing hesitation in closing deals. US meatpackers, like Tyson Foods, are facing high demand and cattle prices amid this market slump. Additionally, China’s Ministry of Commerce is investigating rising beef imports as it deals with a saturated domestic market, impacting prices. This situation poses a significant challenge to US meatpackers, already grappling with high production costs, as they await clarity on the future of their beef exports to China.

2. Weekly Pricing

Weekly Beef Pricing Important Exporters (USD/kg)

Yearly Change in Beef Pricing Important Exporters (W13 2024 to W13 2025)

Brazil

In W13, Brazil's wholesale boneless rear beef price rose by 1.84% week-on-week (WoW), reaching USD 4.99 per kilogram (kg), marking its fifth consecutive weekly increase and the highest level since W48 2024. This also reflects a 7.31% month-on-month (MoM) rise and a 0.20% year-on-year (YoY) increase. According to Safras and Mercado, the wholesale market maintained steady prices throughout the week. The outlook remains positive, with expectations for further price increases in the short term, driven by the influx of salaries into the economy and the anticipated rise in consumption for Easter Sunday. As slaughter scales shorten, meatpacking plants face tight stock levels, which is likely to prompt more aggressive cattle purchases in the short term. Safras and Mercado forecast that this upward price trend will persist, fueled by strong demand expected in the first half of Apr-25, alongside the current state of slaughter scales.

Australia

Australia's National Young Cattle Indicator averaged USD 2.21/kg in W13, reflecting a 0.91% WoW increase, a 3.76% MoM rise, and a 5.24% YoY increase. According to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), cattle prices rose due to widespread rainfall across the east coast, which might have prompted the farmers to retain cattle. National yardings decreased by 28.85 thousand heads to 59.71 thousand heads, marking the smallest yarding since early Feb-25. Queensland saleyards experienced a sharp drop in throughput, with stock transported from New South Wales (NSW) and South Australia (SA) to markets with regular buyers. The national indicators improved as a result of a shortened supply and increased demand. All steer indicators showed an increase, and the Processor Cow Indicator saw significant throughput of 10.26 thousand heads, which led to a rise in the indicator price.

United States

In W13, US lean beef (92% to 94% lean) reached a record average of USD 8.81/kg, marking the highest wholesale price. This price reflects a 1.73% MoM increase and a significant 15.31% YoY rise, driven by tightening domestic supply amid a shrinking US cow herd. According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the total cattle and calf inventory stood at 86.7 million heads as of January 1, 2025, down 0.6% YoY, marking the sixth consecutive year of herd contraction. As a result, US beef production in 2025 is expected to decline by 4.4% YoY, with per capita consumption predicted to fall by 2.68% YoY to 58 pounds (lbs) per person. The price surge has been further exacerbated by trade uncertainties, including higher US import tariffs and retaliatory measures from Canada, the European Union (EU), China, and Mexico.

3. Actionable Recommendations

Strengthen Brazil’s Global Beef Leadership Despite Infrastructure Challenges

Brazil should prioritize enhancing its logistical infrastructure to maintain its position as the world’s leading beef exporter. The country should continue leveraging strategic trade agreements, particularly with emerging markets like Vietnam and Japan, to ensure its beef exports reach new, high-demand markets. Addressing infrastructure gaps, such as improving transport networks and port facilities, will significantly reduce costs and increase Brazil’s competitiveness. Moreover, Brazil’s continued investment in sustainable and technological advancements in beef production will solidify its reputation as a reliable supplier and ensure future growth in global markets.

Explore New Beef Markets as US Trade Uncertainty Grows

Given the potential for US trade barriers, Paraguay should explore a more diversified range of export markets to mitigate the risks of over-reliance on the US. In addition to expanding into markets such as Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Saudi Arabia, Paraguay should prioritize building stronger trade relations and negotiating favorable terms in emerging regions. The establishment of alternative markets can offer stability and growth opportunities in the face of potential tariff impositions. Strengthening its export infrastructure and aligning its production standards with international market requirements will further enhance Paraguay's competitive edge in the global beef trade.

Mitigate the Impact of FMD on Beef Sales and Trade Relations

Slovakia must focus on controlling the spread of FMD through rigorous quarantine measures and increased surveillance across affected regions. To mitigate the economic impact, the government should consider financial aid packages for the livestock sector, ensuring farmers and businesses are supported during this period of crisis. In parallel, Slovakia should prioritize rebuilding export relationships, particularly with neighboring Poland, by implementing stringent animal health protocols and seeking certifications for disease-free zones once the outbreak is contained. This will help restore confidence in Slovak beef exports and position the country for a quicker recovery once the FMD situation is resolved.

Sources: Tridge, Agromeat, AgroPeru, UkrAgroConsult